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Political Economy

The huge beat in US GDP growth

This is going to be real quick. The Q1 GDP numbers came out. And they were a huge beat, showing 3.2% annualized growth versus an expected 2.0%. Even the bullish Atlanta Fed nowcast undershot this at 2.7%. If you look at how the quarter…

Re-acceleration, but for how long?

After the Fed overtightened in 2018, it reversed course abruptly. And risk assets have cheered the Fed's volte face with a V-shaped surge to new highs. And, coincidentally (since Fed policy acts with a lag), the economic data have turned up…

The Best of Times

Yesterday, in the US, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices hit record highs. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not far behind. Financial markets are doing well. In the real economy, for weeks now I have suggested that the signs of…

The strong dollar and Chinese reform

I have an interview on Real Vision with currency specialist Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex coming up later today. And I wanted to sort out some of my macro thinking ahead of it. Let me run by you what I'm seeing in the markets…

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