Europe

I have been watching the third wave make its way across Europe and reading the European press to get a sense of how bad it is. And it definitely looks like another lost quarter for Europe. I really like how comprehensive the coverage in the…

Two separate issues here today. The first is on the yield curve in the US. And the second is on the slow vaccine rollout in the EU and its impact on the economy. The three yield curve outcomes Let' start with the yield curve. We began the…

The numbers coming out of the US today from ADP show the negative impact that coronavirus-related economic rollbacks have had on employment. The data processing firm said the US lost 123,000 jobs in December, where expectations had been for…

It may seem a bit odd for me to talk about why someone might buy shares on a day when retail sales in the US were down 1.1%. But that's what's been on my mind all morning. I think the genesis of it is a conversation I had with Jay Pelosky…

Lockdowns are very destructive for growth. We know that from the record-setting declines in GDP from the first global lockdowns back in the Spring. And we are getting a renewed sense of that fact now as Europe's economy has contracted under…

Quick weekend post because of the news flow I am moving to double dip as my base case for the global economy because of the lockdowns rippling across Western Europe. I have seen confirmed or likely lockdowns in France, Germany, Spain,…

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. That's what they say, isn't it? Well, apparently this is also true about my September/October economic pivot call too. If you recall, I'd been saying that September and October would be a tricky…

The news flow is eliciting five themes for me right now. And I will dive into them briefly below. They are gold, the US dollar and rates, Europe, Covid-19 in the US and US fiscal stimulus. I am not going to take a hard view here. I simply…

Different parts of the global economy are in very different places right now. And the sense I am getting is that this will have meaning only over the medium term. Over the longer-term, there will be a collective recovery. How robust the…

The news flow this weekend was not particularly uplifting either here in the US or in Europe. Overall, the composite I get is one that dovetails with the downside risks I have outlined on both sides of the Atlantic - in the US it is…