currencies

Real quick here on Europe as I promised yesterday to add some thoughts on Germany after my trip to Cologne US base rates are too high Take a look at this chart from Bianco Research. Jim Bianco describes this as showing the US having the…

The US is the cleanest shirt Last week, I was talking to Megan Greene, the former chief economist at John Hancock for an interview on the US and European economies. And she said something that resonated with me about the global growth…

After the Fed overtightened in 2018, it reversed course abruptly. And risk assets have cheered the Fed's volte face with a V-shaped surge to new highs. And, coincidentally (since Fed policy acts with a lag), the economic data have turned up…

I have an interview on Real Vision with currency specialist Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex coming up later today. And I wanted to sort out some of my macro thinking ahead of it. Let me run by you what I'm seeing in the markets…

For the past decade since the financial crisis, China has largely supplied incremental global liquidity. This is a fundamental change from previous decades where the US was the fulcrum. But, today the Chinese have realized they can no…

Note: this post is going out via Patreon and Credit Writedowns. So, you may get duplicate emails. I am just doing this to alert anyone that is only getting emails on one platform to ping me at edh@creditwritedowns.com, so I can fix that.…

The euro is “celebrating” its 20th anniversary this month, but they aren’t popping corks across the continent. The underlying assumption of a common currency—namely, that it would lead to a convergence of the member countries’ production,…

The trading day is over in the US and the numbers look good. Equity markets have recovered smartly from last weeks nosedive, with all major US indices up about 1%. Notable for me is the fact that WTI is trading close to $50 a barrel and the…

If you look at markets today, they are on full strike. The Fed may have reduced guidance. But that was clearly not enough to assuage market sentiment. Across a wide cross-section of markets, conditions have continued to tighten this morning…

There are a number of market, economic and political threads I want to comment on as we end the week. In terms of my mood, having digested the recent economic and political news, I am actually hopeful. I think the prospect of recession and…