currencies

The news flow is eliciting five themes for me right now. And I will dive into them briefly below. They are gold, the US dollar and rates, Europe, Covid-19 in the US and US fiscal stimulus. I am not going to take a hard view here. I simply…

The retail sales data coming out this morning makes clear that the recession that began in February is now over. The forward-looking questions go to what the shape of the recovery looks like, what the policy response will be and how asset…

The tenor of my recent posts to subscribers has been mostly about the real world economic outcomes being worse than anticipated. Today's data flow is no different. Earlier today, I talked about the abysmal PMI numbers in Europe and the…

I woke up this morning to tweets from the amazing Lisa Abramowicz indicating a sizable move into risk-off territory for global markets on the back of coronavirus concerns. And because I talked about faulty market structure related to one of…

Real quick here on Europe as I promised yesterday to add some thoughts on Germany after my trip to Cologne US base rates are too high Take a look at this chart from Bianco Research. Jim Bianco describes this as showing the US having the…

The US is the cleanest shirt Last week, I was talking to Megan Greene, the former chief economist at John Hancock for an interview on the US and European economies. And she said something that resonated with me about the global growth…

After the Fed overtightened in 2018, it reversed course abruptly. And risk assets have cheered the Fed's volte face with a V-shaped surge to new highs. And, coincidentally (since Fed policy acts with a lag), the economic data have turned up…

I have an interview on Real Vision with currency specialist Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex coming up later today. And I wanted to sort out some of my macro thinking ahead of it. Let me run by you what I'm seeing in the markets…

For the past decade since the financial crisis, China has largely supplied incremental global liquidity. This is a fundamental change from previous decades where the US was the fulcrum. But, today the Chinese have realized they can no…

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