Jump in initial claims to 965,000

Jobless claims data around the holiday season is marred by lots of seasonality. And so, only in the coming weeks are we likely to get a 'clean' look at what's going on in real time. The latest report shows a step change that is worrying,…

Hope and Risk

I know you want me to talk about how angry Trump supporters stormed the Capitol yesterday just five miles from where I live. But actually, let's leave that as a tangential topic and use today to marry the first two posts of 2021 that I…

Happy new year 2021

Happy New Year, everyone. I am going to leg into this new year slowly with a thought piece - no charts, no quotes, no numbers. I had thought about updating you last week when the US claims numbers came in. But I think having a couple weeks'…

Pegging market and economic trends

In today's piece, I want to focus only on what's been happening rather than making any conjectures about what's likely to happen. Sometimes, it pays just to take stock of where we are because that can help discern where we're headed. So,…

Laying Out The Bullish Case

It may seem a bit odd for me to talk about why someone might buy shares on a day when retail sales in the US were down 1.1%. But that's what's been on my mind all morning. I think the genesis of it is a conversation I had with Jay Pelosky…

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