Author

Edward Harrison 7730 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Daily

Double dip is now the base case for the global economy

Edward Harrison Oct 31, 2020

Quick weekend post because of the news flow I am moving to double dip as my base case for the global economy because of the lockdowns rippling across Western Europe. I have seen confirmed or likely lockdowns in France, Germany, Spain,…

Daily

Shutdowns and double dips

Edward Harrison Oct 30, 2020

I want to run something by you I haven't thought through 100%. It's on the coronavirus where I am by no means an expert. But it's troubling me and putting virtual pen to virtual paper will help me tease out some of the variables. I'll try…

Daily

The Macro Themes That Matter, Part 3, Markets Edition

Edward Harrison Oct 29, 2020

Before I get into the markets, let me point out two nice data points released this morning. The data The first is Q3 GDP for the US, which came in at 33.1% on an annualized basis and ahead of expectations for 31.0%. That's 7.4% growth in…

Daily

The Macro Themes That Matter, Part 2, Mea Culpa Double Dip Edition

Edward Harrison Oct 28, 2020

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. That's what they say, isn't it? Well, apparently this is also true about my September/October economic pivot call too. If you recall, I'd been saying that September and October would be a tricky…

Daily

The Macro Themes That Matter, Part 1

Edward Harrison Oct 26, 2020

I want to take the most macro view possible today. We have a major US election upon us. And we are also experiencing significant increases in Covid-19 infections in Europe and North America. These are events with a wide dispersion of…

Daily

Scalability and the K-shaped recovery

Edward Harrison Oct 21, 2020

I was reading something this morning about Fed Governor Lael Brainard recommending monetary and fiscal support to stop a K-shaped outcome where the less well-off lose and the most well-off win. “This strong support from monetary policy - if…

Daily

Chinese GDP, European double dip and Norway as the model

Edward Harrison Oct 19, 2020

The thread that ties today's topics at Credit Writedowns together is the novel coronavirus pandemic. That's because how various countries have fared economically is very much dependent on what they are doing to control the virus. Let me…

Daily

Two alternative takes on the recession and on coronavirus

Edward Harrison Oct 16, 2020

Real quick here as I want to highlight two other analysts' thinking. This morning, I saw two novel ways of conceptualizing what's happening during this pandemic that I wanted to run by you because I think they add value. It's not…

Political Economy

Lessening credit distress and a jobless claims surge

Edward Harrison Oct 15, 2020

In the US, after the initial V-shaped basing effect of the re-opening, we have moved into a more steady state uptick in output and growth. Having seen the data since June, I believe we exited recession with the re-opening and are now far…

Daily

The business cycle and credit, defaults, and bankruptcies

Edward Harrison Oct 14, 2020

I want to put a little more meat on the bones regarding the section of yesterday's post on credit, defaults and bankruptcies with some numbers. I would contend that credit cycles lead garden-variety business cycle turns. So, absent a Black…

Previous 1 2 3 4 5 … 773 Next