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Why my base case for 2020 is recession

Back at the end of July, I was talking about my macro thesis. And I led off writing this: The US is the laggard in this slowing but is affected as well. From a markets perspective, that means a convergence to zero, with yield curves…

The awful news coming out of Germany

Yesterday, I highlighted Germany in terms of downside global economic risk. We are experiencing a manufacturing- and trade-led deceleration in global growth. Germany is the most prominent large Western economy leveraged to both.

Dreams of a Second Half Recovery

As I write this, Washington is fixated on the congressional testimony of Robert Mueller. My attention is elsewhere though. For me, it's the economy that matters. Over the past two weeks, we have had a "recession watch" on Real Vision,…

The Mid-2019 Macroeconomy

In the US, we are officially in the longest expansion of all time. And, as yet, there are no definitive indicators I can see that it will end in short order. So I remain hopeful, if cautious about the potential for the US economy to avoid…

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