Daily

After the last week off, let's see if we can get back into the flow here. And my apologies for ghosting you. I was overcommitted last week against a backdrop where there was less to say. In the interim, though, I have seen three market…

Jobs day in the US in 2021 will be the same for me today for the third month running. It's all about the start and stop nature in the leisure and hospitality sectors due to the pandemic. Underneath those shifts, the reverse radical recovery…

In the week ending February 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 745,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 730,000 to 736,000.…

I think we're close enough to the end of the Covid era to start talking more about what happens when this period is over. By that, I don't mean that COVID-19 is over as a major public health threat. I mean more that the period of time when…

I have two subjects on my mind today. One is interest rates and the other is equity markets. I wrote a brief Twitter thread on how I'm thinking about this here. But let me spell it out more granularly now. Rates driving volatility Interest…

I have an interview with Mark Ritchie coming up in an hour and I wanted to write a specific post about the changing tone on Credit Writedowns because of it. I last spoke to Mark in June. And he was a wide-eyed bull, telling me that the 3-…

Oh, how the world has changed! The threat of a mutant-inspired viral wave and lockdown still lurks in the background, yes. Even so, the balance of risks is now completely tilted to the upside in the US economy. And that means we have to…

Two separate issues here today. The first is on the yield curve in the US. And the second is on the slow vaccine rollout in the EU and its impact on the economy. The three yield curve outcomes Let' start with the yield curve. We began the…

I had some bullish economic thoughts last week. But I also embedded a warning about support for bonds being broken. Yields at the long end of the US Treasury curve are rising, potentially to the top of a range between 1.00% and 1.50% and…

Let's look at upside potential instead of downside risk today. And then let's put it in the context of the three yield curve outcomes I have posited. The virus I'll start with the thing that everything else seems dependent on these days,…