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Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future
I was talking to my colleague Jack Farley about the financial news flow earlier today. (We're recording a Real Vision Daily Briefing at 4:30PM EDT). He and I agreed that crypto seemed to dominate the headlines. But he and I are also sick of…
Europe: Don’t call it a comeback
I have four things on my mind today: Bullish PMIs in Europe, the electric Ford F-150 launch, non-payment on bond by Unicredit, and the Biden Administration's non-embrace of MMT. Let's take each of these in turn
European economic data
Look…
Buy the rumour and sell the news aka sell in May and go away
I am writing this just before the NY open of US markets. And we have the makings of serious losses on the back of an absolute pounding in the cryptocurrency space. There, the largest asset, Bitcoin, has been cut in half with most of the…
European tech is about to explode
You know, as I started writing today, I tried to think of a headline to suck you in. If you're reading these words, you're either a loyal reader or you got sucked in, which was my purpose. So let me tell you where I'm going with this.
At…
Will the Fed(s) stay the course?
This post on the bond vigilantes is inspired in part by my friend Kevin Muir and a post he just did over at The Macro Tourist. It's also inspired by the inflation numbers that came out of the US earlier today. The question to answer: how…
Americans paid not to work
In the wake of the last jobs report in the US, unemployment insurance has become a political football. The issue has some of the trappings of a labor vs capital tete a tete because of how the jobs report is being framed. Some thoughts below…
The full-on pandemic, the full re-opening, and the Exponential Age
I am trying to figure out how to position this post for you because I have a few things on my mind. Let me start off with the most salient point: from a macroeconomic and market perspective, it's been quiet. There's almost no real news…
European vaccination, Manchin, and Republican infrastructure spell European outperformance
I am going to try and fit a few topics together into a cohesive narrative around a pivot to Europe amid an ongoing stimulus campaign on both sides of the Atlantic. The broad outline is one where both fiscal and monetary policy are…
Winning the footrace against the variants and approaching the new normal
Winning the footrace
If you look at the SARS-CoV-2 case counts in the United States, they're flat to declining over the past two weeks. The fourth wave of the coronavirus in the US has been more muted than previous waves.
And while some…
A quick word on bond vigilantism and market mania
I am sceptical of the long-term durability of this cycle. But, we have to remember that we had a record-long economic cycle after the Great Financial Crisis. And now, policymakers are not willing to accept impotence, either on the monetary…