Daily

Lockdowns are very destructive for growth. We know that from the record-setting declines in GDP from the first global lockdowns back in the Spring. And we are getting a renewed sense of that fact now as Europe's economy has contracted under…

The incoming data in the US make clear that the US is now also in jeopardy of recording a double dip recession because of the latest Covid-19 wave, just as Europe before it. Moreover, the data also make clear that there is no healthcare -…

I have been trying to find a coherent thread to write about on  what's happening in the economy and in financial markets. But it's been challenging. Yesterday, for example, I did a segment for Real Vision with my colleague Ash Bennington.…

In the last post, I linked to the wrong video at Real Vision. The one I linked to was about Europe's shutdowns and a worsening Covid-19 pandemic. I wanted to link to Monday October 26th discussion. Here is the link. I also found a comment…

Today's ADP jobs report makes plain that the US economy's V-shaped recovery is moving toward the reverse radical section of the upturn. The question is whether politics and the Covid-19 crisis add to downside risk. My view until now has…

Quick weekend post because of the news flow I am moving to double dip as my base case for the global economy because of the lockdowns rippling across Western Europe. I have seen confirmed or likely lockdowns in France, Germany, Spain,…

I want to run something by you I haven't thought through 100%. It's on the coronavirus where I am by no means an expert. But it's troubling me and putting virtual pen to virtual paper will help me tease out some of the variables. I'll try…

Before I get into the markets, let me point out two nice data points released this morning. The data The first is Q3 GDP for the US, which came in at 33.1% on an annualized basis and ahead of expectations for 31.0%. That's 7.4% growth in…

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. That's what they say, isn't it? Well, apparently this is also true about my September/October economic pivot call too. If you recall, I'd been saying that September and October would be a tricky…

I want to take the most macro view possible today. We have a major US election upon us. And we are also experiencing significant increases in Covid-19 infections in Europe and North America. These are events with a wide dispersion of…