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The oil bull market, IPO freeze, weak UK data and preventing no-deal Brexit
Today's daily post is going to a true daily, covering a wide range of market and political economy news.
Forcing government to rule out no deal
And I want to start with Brexit because I think this is one of the most pressing issues in the…
Some comments on the shutdown, Fed policy and the markets
On today's market action
Today saw the S&P 500 rise for the fourth straight day, the longest up-streak since September. And that puts us up 10% since Christmas Eve. Crude is rallying too , with WTI gaining almost 5% on the day to…
Credit Writedowns 2019 Outlook, Part 2 – Brexit
I've been thinking about how to write this piece on the outlook for the political economy in the UK for a number of days. I had it teed up to finish yesterday. But I have left it until today. Apologies
I still have the bias that economics…
Some thoughts on today’s 312,000 jobs added to the economy
The numbers
Now, about the jobs numbers, here are the headline numbers:
An increase of 312,000 in December in non-farm payrolls based on the business survey. That is well in excess of the consensus estimate for 178,000.
Revisions of…
Growth downshift warning as Apple’s guidance downgrade trumps mixed data
I will continue my 2019 outlook pieces in the coming days. But we've seen a lot of data out today. I think what we're seeing will have a bearing on rate policy, especially given what's happening in the bond market, something I discussed…
Credit Writedowns 2019 Outlook, Part 1 – US Politics
Happy New Year!
I've been thinking about what will be different in 2019 than 2018 and I wanted to run my thoughts by you on a number of different topics. And because I've discussed some of my thinking about the outlook for the markets and…
More on the steepening yield curve and deteriorating credit conditions
I want to talk a little about price action in asset markets this week. But, since I am on holiday, I am going to keep this short. Most of the focus has been on equities, where volatility has increased. But I am looking at this as more of a…
The Trump Presidency is collapsing
Markets are imploding, every organization that US President Donald Trump has led is under investigation, his poll ratings are sagging, and Trump's legislative agenda is set to go nowhere under a divided Congress. Frankly, it looks very…
Fight the Fed
Stocks sold off big again today. Slowly, we are inching ourselves toward a bear market here. And I think the mantra has to be 'Fight the Fed'.
In this morning's market piece, I explained why this could be the Fed's last rate increase. And…
The Fed acts as Credit Writedowns predicted. Here’s why and what to expect
As I wrote yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point but changed guidance in the face of tightening financial conditions. In his press conference afterwards, the Fed Chairman - also as predicted - talked bullishly…