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Momentum stocks as a long duration secular stagnation play
How do like that for a title!
Let me flesh this out relatively quickly here. It might end up spanning multiple posts as a result. But, yesterday I promised to follow up on thoughts about market volatility and market directional based on a…
US economic outlook to now deteriorate quickly
When I last wrote about the US economy on Friday, I wrote that the jobs numbers "support my baseline view that the rollover in US GDP growth has been mild so far. The threat to that outlook comes in the form of policy and the anticipated…
Recent jobs data supports muted W-shaped recovery for now
The jobs report that came out today and the jobless claims report that came out yesterday both support my baseline view that the rollover in US GDP growth has been mild so far. The threat to that outlook comes in the form of policy and the…
More on the fiscal cliff and a double dip
The new normal
We are in the middle of a grand social experiment. That's the overriding thought I had this morning as I looked out my bathroom window on the empty streets below. Some of the longer-term impacts of this experiment are clear -…
Jobless claims, the fiscal cliff and a double dip
I think the title of this post lays out exactly what I intend to cover. It's all about the US economy and its vulnerability to a double dip recession due to the fiscal cliff and rising jobless claims. To cut to the chase, I haven't been…
Five important macro themes on my mind today
The news flow is eliciting five themes for me right now. And I will dive into them briefly below. They are gold, the US dollar and rates, Europe, Covid-19 in the US and US fiscal stimulus. I am not going to take a hard view here. I simply…
Where are we economically right now?
Different parts of the global economy are in very different places right now. And the sense I am getting is that this will have meaning only over the medium term. Over the longer-term, there will be a collective recovery. How robust the…
Initial jobless claims rise 100,000, unadjusted claims fall 100,000
I am writing this initial part just after 8AM EDT while I await the jobless claims. I told you on Monday I expect a big number = larger than most. And I will update you when the claims come in, as I write. But I want to talk about the…
Why initial jobless claims are going to go through the roof
I did a quick experiment with US initial jobless claims for my colleagues at Real Vision for today's Daily Briefing. And because the results were so interesting, I thought I'd post them here despite having just posted earlier this morning.…
News suggests major economic and political challenges ahead
The news flow this weekend was not particularly uplifting either here in the US or in Europe. Overall, the composite I get is one that dovetails with the downside risks I have outlined on both sides of the Atlantic - in the US it is…