Browsing Tag

Economic Data

Why my base case for 2020 is recession

Back at the end of July, I was talking about my macro thesis. And I led off writing this: The US is the laggard in this slowing but is affected as well. From a markets perspective, that means a convergence to zero, with yield curves…

Dreams of a Second Half Recovery

As I write this, Washington is fixated on the congressional testimony of Robert Mueller. My attention is elsewhere though. For me, it's the economy that matters. Over the past two weeks, we have had a "recession watch" on Real Vision,…

The Mid-2019 Macroeconomy

In the US, we are officially in the longest expansion of all time. And, as yet, there are no definitive indicators I can see that it will end in short order. So I remain hopeful, if cautious about the potential for the US economy to avoid…

Brief thoughts on the jobs report

Today's jobs report in the US showed some fairly bullish headline numbers. Not only did the unemployment rate did to a 49-year low of 3.6%, but the monster 263,000 job addition was bolstered by net revisions of 16,000, bringing the total to…

The huge beat in US GDP growth

This is going to be real quick. The Q1 GDP numbers came out. And they were a huge beat, showing 3.2% annualized growth versus an expected 2.0%. Even the bullish Atlanta Fed nowcast undershot this at 2.7%. If you look at how the quarter…

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