Economic Data

I have three threads I want to say a few words on: jobless claims, the jobs report and recent market volatility. I think the macro theme that connects them is about a reversion to the mean' in real economy versus financial economy…

The fix I am writing this just before the release of the US jobless claims data series. And for weeks now, I have been telling you that the unemployment claim series was distorted by a multiplicative seasonal factor. See here and here.…

Quick post here on jobless claims I want to lead with what I wrote yesterday: In terms of real-time data, initial jobless claims are where the rubber hits the road. They are declining but elevated. A steady-state post-recessionary economy…

The jobs report that came out today and the jobless claims report that came out yesterday both support my baseline view that the rollover in US GDP growth has been mild so far. The threat to that outlook comes in the form of policy and the…

Different parts of the global economy are in very different places right now. And the sense I am getting is that this will have meaning only over the medium term. Over the longer-term, there will be a collective recovery. How robust the…

I am writing this initial part just after 8AM EDT while I await the jobless claims. I told you on Monday I expect a big number = larger than most. And I will update you when the claims come in, as I write. But I want to talk about the…

I did a quick experiment with US initial jobless claims for my colleagues at Real Vision for today's Daily Briefing. And because the results were so interesting, I thought I'd post them here despite having just posted earlier this morning.…

Framing the economic path This is just a quick update on how I am thinking about the US economy. I am going to put this outside the paywall for once in order to update everyone. I'll put the run-up to today in a bullet point framework up…

Very briefly here The jobs numbers coming out the US today are emblematic of the re-opening recovery that has fuelled the rally in US equity markets. Payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June, adding to the upwardly revised 2.7 million on May.…

Happy Wednesday. From what I can discern, the macro outlook is largely unchanged today. So, I thought I'd take a stab at presenting the news flow that most grabs my attention to put it in context for you. The framing here is that we…