Economic Data

I watched the Democratic Debate in Las Vegas last night. And after looking at some analysis of the economy and the debate this morning, I came to the conclusion that we are seeing a worst case scenario for the Democrats' hopes to defeat…

I am going to write mostly about the economic impact of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak today. But I have one or two other pieces to add here as well.

Today is a bit of a potpourri because I have three different unrelated topics to discuss and one review item. But I'll make it (relatively) short. I have the most to say about Germany.

The latest jobs report confirms that, on the eve of the coronavirus outbreak, the US economy was healthy, and that there was little chance of a near-term recession. I would go so far as to say that, even with the coronavirus outbreak, the…

There are a lot of bearish views out there, suggesting recession is just around the corner. Frankly, I don’t see it.

The US economy has been growing for a record 129 months now. And the data that's been coming out of the US recently indicate that's unlikely to change anytime soon. Could the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak upset this trend?…

I am looking at the US yield curve as I write this note and I see the 10-year yield is just one-tenth of a basis point above the 3-month yield. And the curve is completely inverted from 6 months to 3 years. Should we be worried? The short…

Despite my seemingly panglossian 'cautiously optimistic' post last week, I am still very much worried that we are hitting the end of this cycle. I'll tell you why below. But, let me add just a few notes on style first! In keeping with 'the…

I have been trying to write an all-encompassing post for the new year for two weeks now. But time has never allowed it. So I've decided to forego that and get something out to you on what I am thinking as 2020 begins. First and foremost,…

Quick post outside the paywall here on some of the data coming out of the US recently FedEx bellwether I wanted to start with FedEx because it is often considered a bellwether of the US economy given its position at the center of shipping…