Political Economy

So it turns out the dip in initial jobless claims last week was just an artifact of the Thanksgiving holiday. This week we played catch up and then some. The question now is where we go from here. Some thoughts on that below Big Head Ed…

The report on the US Employment Situation for November 2020 was released today. And the headline job growth number was poor, a miss of over 200,000 jobs. But as I write this, markets are mostly of a bullish mindset, looking through this…

Very quick here The initial jobless claims number released this morning of 712,000 was well below expectations for 775,000. And it was also well below last week's upwardly revised figure of 787,000. That's very good news. But it is just…

I want to take stock of the economic landscape in the US now that the Thanksgiving holiday is past. There are three decisive variables in my view. The first is the ability of the healthcare system to deal with the coronavirus and keep…

The US is moving quickly toward a double dip recession despite the prospect of vaccines being administered as soon as next month. The question is not whether growth forecasts ratchet down. It's about how much they come down and what the…

Lockdowns are very destructive for growth. We know that from the record-setting declines in GDP from the first global lockdowns back in the Spring. And we are getting a renewed sense of that fact now as Europe's economy has contracted under…

The incoming data in the US make clear that the US is now also in jeopardy of recording a double dip recession because of the latest Covid-19 wave, just as Europe before it. Moreover, the data also make clear that there is no healthcare -…

I have been trying to find a coherent thread to write about on  what's happening in the economy and in financial markets. But it's been challenging. Yesterday, for example, I did a segment for Real Vision with my colleague Ash Bennington.…

In the last post, I linked to the wrong video at Real Vision. The one I linked to was about Europe's shutdowns and a worsening Covid-19 pandemic. I wanted to link to Monday October 26th discussion. Here is the link. I also found a comment…

Today's ADP jobs report makes plain that the US economy's V-shaped recovery is moving toward the reverse radical section of the upturn. The question is whether politics and the Covid-19 crisis add to downside risk. My view until now has…