Political Economy

I am waiting for the jobs numbers out of the US as I begin this post. On Wednesday, we got a preview via the private sector unemployment numbers released by ADP. They showed a loss of more than 20 million jobs, which was pretty much in line…

We are now entering the insolvency phase of this recession, where, despite government's best efforts, the weakest companies go under and unemployment rises. This shakeout will take months. But the economy will rebound out of recession well…

Last week, a friend from business school who I met up with in New York in early March told me she had taken an antibody test for coronavirus and came back positive. Her first thought was about donating blood, whereas my first thought was…

Real quick here because I am a bit under the weather The snapback This morning I retweeted a tweet by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm about the dire economic numbers in the US, saying: Can we call this a depression already? What…

The model I have a bit of a problem. I am not sure how to put today's post together. What I plan to dissect is the economic outlook as we escape coronavirus lockdowns. But, economies are so complex and the outlook is so uncertain that it's…

Today's newsletter is going to be more of a potpourri from the international economic and market news flow than a theme-specific post. Before I proceed, let me say a few words about the dire sentiment associated with this pandemic. Negative…

It's easy to get pessimistic, looking at the economic outlook from the US, which has been a laggard during the coronavirus pandemic. The United States has a ways to go before a semblance of economic normalcy returns. But I have been…

This is a follow-on post to the one I wrote on 23 March predicting there would be a rush to exit lockdowns because of the economic consequences of the full stop to our economy. I've re-read that post. And I stand by my view that the base…

I participate in a weekday markets briefing at Real Vision these days. I love these. They're timely, spontaneous and fun. It's something we started there because markets have been so volatile and fast-moving in the wake of the coronavirus…

This post title may not seem relevant right now. But, let me explain it first. I was looking through my post drafts folder this morning, deleting ones that never made it to publication. And this post title popped up as having been…