Browsing Category
Political Economy
Initial claims and the fiscal cliff
I am a bit time-constrained today. So I want to make this a relatively brief post. I am going to focus narrowly on initial claims for unemployment insurance in the US and on the political struggle to aid the 30 million people unemployed due…
US economic outlook to now deteriorate quickly
When I last wrote about the US economy on Friday, I wrote that the jobs numbers "support my baseline view that the rollover in US GDP growth has been mild so far. The threat to that outlook comes in the form of policy and the anticipated…
Recent jobs data supports muted W-shaped recovery for now
The jobs report that came out today and the jobless claims report that came out yesterday both support my baseline view that the rollover in US GDP growth has been mild so far. The threat to that outlook comes in the form of policy and the…
The surge in jobless claims looks to be over
Real quick here
The latest week's initial unemployment claims figures came out today. And they show claims have plummeted from their highest levels three weeks ago. I take this as a signal that the second wave of viral infections is not…
More on the fiscal cliff and a double dip
The new normal
We are in the middle of a grand social experiment. That's the overriding thought I had this morning as I looked out my bathroom window on the empty streets below. Some of the longer-term impacts of this experiment are clear -…
Jobless claims, the fiscal cliff and a double dip
I think the title of this post lays out exactly what I intend to cover. It's all about the US economy and its vulnerability to a double dip recession due to the fiscal cliff and rising jobless claims. To cut to the chase, I haven't been…
Five important macro themes on my mind today
The news flow is eliciting five themes for me right now. And I will dive into them briefly below. They are gold, the US dollar and rates, Europe, Covid-19 in the US and US fiscal stimulus. I am not going to take a hard view here. I simply…
Why initial jobless claims are going to go through the roof
I did a quick experiment with US initial jobless claims for my colleagues at Real Vision for today's Daily Briefing. And because the results were so interesting, I thought I'd post them here despite having just posted earlier this morning.…
Political impasse over jobless claims just as they mushroom
Framing the economic path
This is just a quick update on how I am thinking about the US economy. I am going to put this outside the paywall for once in order to update everyone. I'll put the run-up to today in a bullet point framework up…
The information silo
This is my first time posting in a week. There was a combination of factors that kept me away from the newsletter like pressing work at Real Vision and a lack of revealing economic data flow. But, the biggest factor was the coronavirus news…