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Political Economy
Why initial jobless claims are going to go through the roof
I did a quick experiment with US initial jobless claims for my colleagues at Real Vision for today's Daily Briefing. And because the results were so interesting, I thought I'd post them here despite having just posted earlier this morning.…
Political impasse over jobless claims just as they mushroom
Framing the economic path
This is just a quick update on how I am thinking about the US economy. I am going to put this outside the paywall for once in order to update everyone. I'll put the run-up to today in a bullet point framework up…
The information silo
This is my first time posting in a week. There was a combination of factors that kept me away from the newsletter like pressing work at Real Vision and a lack of revealing economic data flow. But, the biggest factor was the coronavirus news…
Data show W-shaped recovery is taking hold
As I write this, I am waiting for the latest jobless claims data out of the US to be released. But, irrespective of what the data show, unfortunately we are seeing a W-shaped pattern to economic data. And that looks set to continue. Some…
‘Bullish’ takeaways from US jobs data
Very briefly here
The jobs numbers coming out the US today are emblematic of the re-opening recovery that has fuelled the rally in US equity markets. Payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June, adding to the upwardly revised 2.7 million on May.…
News flow as European shares outperform the US
Happy Wednesday. From what I can discern, the macro outlook is largely unchanged today. So, I thought I'd take a stab at presenting the news flow that most grabs my attention to put it in context for you.
The framing here is that we…
The coronavirus pandemic is worsening
As this is a finance site, I have tended to steer clear of writing about what's happening with the novel coronavirus. But, that's hard to do since it is the single most important factor in all of our lives. So, I'm going to give you an…
The three crises facing the United States
Falling apart
I haven't posted in a week because I am trying to process what's happening in the United States right now. With the pandemic and 20-25% unemployment and cities torn by protest and violence, it really seems like the country is…
Why higher US savings won’t save the pandemic-hit economy
By Michael Pettis
This post was originally published at China Financial Markets at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website
According to a May 2020 CNN article, one consequence of the coronavirus pandemic is that “Americans…
The Escalating New Cold War
The New Cold War
I am going to have to get my hands on the new Pettis-Klein book that has come out recently. Here's how Yale University Press touts "Trade Wars are Class Wars":
A provocative look at how today’s trade conflicts are caused by…