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Political Economy
Data setback for the economic bears
The US economy has been growing for a record 129 months now. And the data that's been coming out of the US recently indicate that's unlikely to change anytime soon. Could the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak upset this trend?…
More on the coronavirus, tail risk and policy error
it’s now much more clear that the coronavirus is a serious event risk and that financial conditions are tightening very quicky. The Federal Reserve needs to take these signals seriously to prevent worst-case outcomes, that include recession…
Overkill on recession worries
I am looking at the US yield curve as I write this note and I see the 10-year yield is just one-tenth of a basis point above the 3-month yield. And the curve is completely inverted from 6 months to 3 years. Should we be worried? The short…
When is individual wealth too large?
In an interview with Ta-Neishi Coates, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tries to answer the recurrent question of 'when is it just too much money?"
Here's the clip. Watch the whole thing because I am going to comment on it.
The AOC position…
My constant end of cycle worries
Despite my seemingly panglossian 'cautiously optimistic' post last week, I am still very much worried that we are hitting the end of this cycle. I'll tell you why below. But, let me add just a few notes on style first! In keeping with 'the…
The Iran conflict and why political events aren’t bigger economic drivers
Somewhere in the Credit Writedowns archive are comments regarding US President Trump to the effect that political economy shocks won't matter. So I want to share a quick anecdote with you on why I have never put too much stock in the…
The new cautiously optimistic Credit Writedowns in 2020
I have been trying to write an all-encompassing post for the new year for two weeks now. But time has never allowed it. So I've decided to forego that and get something out to you on what I am thinking as 2020 begins.
First and foremost,…
Some soft US data doesn’t yet mean recession
Quick post outside the paywall here on some of the data coming out of the US recently
FedEx bellwether
I wanted to start with FedEx because it is often considered a bellwether of the US economy given its position at the center of shipping…
Take back control: the revolt of the working class
Framing the populist revolt
In the industrialized Western world, we are living through a great age of populism. There's no doubt about that now. The trigger for it was the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 and the knock-on European…
A breakdown of the post-war global Western alliance
Everybody's talking about this video of G-7 leaders laughing at US President Donald Trump during the recent NATO summit. While most people are just giggling about it, I think it reflects a much deeper issue. Take a look.
.@JustinTrudeau,…