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Political Economy
No stimulus, no problem?
The calls for fiscal relief by the Federal Reserve have apparently fallen on deaf ears, as US President Trump pulled out of negotiations for a stimulus package last night. Asset markets were all over the place as investors digested the…
David Rosenberg and the corona crisis as a depression
I know everyone is still talking about President Trump's contracting coronavirus. But I want to talk about the virus from a different, more economic lens. That's because I was talking to the excellent David Rosenberg last week about the…
Economic downshift sinking in?
I want to run something by you here. It's entirely speculative but there are multiple threads hanging off of it that give me reason to speculate. It's about the trajectory of the US (and global economy) and signs that growth is slowing.…
Jobless claims remain dangerously elevated
The US Department of Labor released the latest jobless claims report this morning and the numbers were poor. From their email, announcing the figures:
In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial…
Get while the getting is good (and more on jobless claims)
Quick post here on jobless claims
Data collection difficulties
Data collection is a real challenge during this pandemic. And the US jobless claims data set is telling on that score. For one, the US Labor Department was forced a few weeks…
The US labor market is deteriorating
Today's US jobless claims report makes clear that the boost from re-opening is now fading. And a second wave of job loss is upon us. As a result, while the US unemployment rate declined more than expected in the last jobs report, I expect…
Fixing the jobless claims numbers
The fix
I am writing this just before the release of the US jobless claims data series. And for weeks now, I have been telling you that the unemployment claim series was distorted by a multiplicative seasonal factor. See here and here.…
Initial claims and the fiscal cliff update
Quick post here on jobless claims
I want to lead with what I wrote yesterday:
In terms of real-time data, initial jobless claims are where the rubber hits the road. They are declining but elevated. A steady-state post-recessionary economy…
Signals to watch as crucial fall season approaches
My view for the last several weeks is that September and October is where the rubber hits the road for the US economy. By that time, the second spike in coronavirus cases will have diminished and we will get a more realistic forward-looking…
Initial claims and the fiscal cliff
I am a bit time-constrained today. So I want to make this a relatively brief post. I am going to focus narrowly on initial claims for unemployment insurance in the US and on the political struggle to aid the 30 million people unemployed due…