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Political Economy
Coronavirus and initial claims bogeys ahead of schedule
The US is moving quickly toward a double dip recession despite the prospect of vaccines being administered as soon as next month. The question is not whether growth forecasts ratchet down. It's about how much they come down and what the…
Europe double dips as the US expands
Lockdowns are very destructive for growth. We know that from the record-setting declines in GDP from the first global lockdowns back in the Spring. And we are getting a renewed sense of that fact now as Europe's economy has contracted under…
Double dip is now the base case for the US as well as the global economy
The incoming data in the US make clear that the US is now also in jeopardy of recording a double dip recession because of the latest Covid-19 wave, just as Europe before it. Moreover, the data also make clear that there is no healthcare -…
Rotation toward value, Covid-19 spikes and electoral disputes
I have been trying to find a coherent thread to write about on what's happening in the economy and in financial markets. But it's been challenging. Yesterday, for example, I did a segment for Real Vision with my colleague Ash Bennington.…
Addendum on divided government
In the last post, I linked to the wrong video at Real Vision. The one I linked to was about Europe's shutdowns and a worsening Covid-19 pandemic. I wanted to link to Monday October 26th discussion. Here is the link.
I also found a comment…
Divided government, stimulus anxiety and Covid-19
Today's ADP jobs report makes plain that the US economy's V-shaped recovery is moving toward the reverse radical section of the upturn. The question is whether politics and the Covid-19 crisis add to downside risk.
My view until now has…
Double dip is now the base case for the global economy
Quick weekend post because of the news flow
I am moving to double dip as my base case for the global economy because of the lockdowns rippling across Western Europe. I have seen confirmed or likely lockdowns in France, Germany, Spain,…
Shutdowns and double dips
I want to run something by you I haven't thought through 100%. It's on the coronavirus where I am by no means an expert. But it's troubling me and putting virtual pen to virtual paper will help me tease out some of the variables. I'll try…
The Macro Themes That Matter, Part 2, Mea Culpa Double Dip Edition
It ain't over until the fat lady sings. That's what they say, isn't it? Well, apparently this is also true about my September/October economic pivot call too.
If you recall, I'd been saying that September and October would be a tricky…
The Macro Themes That Matter, Part 1
I want to take the most macro view possible today. We have a major US election upon us. And we are also experiencing significant increases in Covid-19 infections in Europe and North America. These are events with a wide dispersion of…