trade

By Michael Pettis This post was originally published at China Financial Markets at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website According to a May 2020 CNN article, one consequence of the coronavirus pandemic is that “Americans…

The New Cold War I am going to have to get my hands on the new Pettis-Klein book that has come out recently. Here's how Yale University Press touts "Trade Wars are Class Wars": A provocative look at how today’s trade conflicts are caused by…

The big story today is the potential for a currency war, emanating from the escalating trade war between the US and China. But there's a considerable degree of data flow that I want to parse to give a more complete macro view. Having…

Yesterday, I highlighted Germany in terms of downside global economic risk. We are experiencing a manufacturing- and trade-led deceleration in global growth. Germany is the most prominent large Western economy leveraged to both.

Recession Watch America's business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. Their primary fear: protectionist trade policy. That is the topline finding of a report released Monday…

The economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we're seeing in financial markets right now suggests markets are discounting serious economic problems down the line.…

A number of recent articles suggest that Chinese officials may reduce their purchases of U.S. government bonds. It is very unlikely that China can do so in any meaningful way because doing so would almost certainly be costly for Beijing.…

Trade and Currency Wars I am starting this article just ahead of the equity market open in New York. And S&P futures have the market opening down 1%. The market continues to be unsettled by the political uncertainty around the US-China…

The IPO market is hot As I wrote last night, IPO conditions right now seem nearly ideal for growth companies to come to market. The appetite for loss-making companies shows us that public investors are willing to overlook losses as long as…

Recalling "Trump Unchained" It started with the sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in March 2018, almost a year ago. US President Donald Trump has gradually but forcefully unchained himself from moderating influences in his…