The FOMC is scheduled to release a policy statement tomorrow, with a press conference to follow. A quarter percent increase in the Fed funds target is guaranteed. But future Fed policy will depend on three Fed projections: the dot plot,…
Right now, many economists are talking about US growth through 2019 and a 3% unemployment rate. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius is one of them. The fly in the ointment is the Fed and its accelerated rate hike timetable.
We are not at full employment. Don't give up on the people who have dropped out of the labor force. There are jobs waiting for them, if we allow this thing to run.
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard has given a defining speech that marks a regime shift in US monetary policy. She says that economic headwinds that favored caution have turned to tailwinds. The implication is a more aggressive…
Productivity is an important yardstick for measuring the value of goods and services workers. A recent study by McKinsey demonstrates that wages and demand are key to raising it.
Reuters has done a state-by-state analysis of wage data in the US, showing average pay rising over 3% in more than half of US states. This puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
When defaults begin to rise and the economy begins to slow, we will find out whether deficits really drive rates higher or cause inflation to rise and remain high.
We’re looking at about 1% in real terms. In the 2000s, we saw real earnings growth rise to 2% and in the late 1990s, it was even 3%.