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Growth downshift, yes. But how much?

A lot of the data coming out of the US of late reinforces the concept that the V-shaped recovery is flattening out. Meanwhile, in Europe, which has outperformed the US on a currency-adjusted basis, the question now is whether that…

Initial claims and the fiscal cliff

I am a bit time-constrained today. So I want to make this a relatively brief post. I am going to focus narrowly on initial claims for unemployment insurance in the US and on the political struggle to aid the 30 million people unemployed due…

Where are we economically right now?

Different parts of the global economy are in very different places right now. And the sense I am getting is that this will have meaning only over the medium term. Over the longer-term, there will be a collective recovery. How robust the…

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