Jobs

Today's ADP jobs report makes plain that the US economy's V-shaped recovery is moving toward the reverse radical section of the upturn. The question is whether politics and the Covid-19 crisis add to downside risk. My view until now has…

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. That's what they say, isn't it? Well, apparently this is also true about my September/October economic pivot call too. If you recall, I'd been saying that September and October would be a tricky…

In the US, after the initial V-shaped basing effect of the re-opening, we have moved into a more steady state uptick in output and growth. Having seen the data since June, I believe we exited recession with the re-opening and are now far…

The jobless claims series came out again this morning showing 840,000 initial claims plus a modest revision upward of last week's number to 849,000. These numbers just aren't coming down fast enough. And we know from the last recovery that…

I know everyone is still talking about President Trump's contracting coronavirus. But I want to talk about the virus from a different, more economic lens. That's because I was talking to the excellent David Rosenberg last week about the…

I want to run something by you here. It's entirely speculative but there are multiple threads hanging off of it that give me reason to speculate. It's about the trajectory of the US (and global economy) and signs that growth is slowing.…

The US Department of Labor released the latest jobless claims report this morning and the numbers were poor. From their email, announcing the figures: In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial…

Quick post here on jobless claims Data collection difficulties Data collection is a real challenge during this pandemic. And the US jobless claims data set is telling on that score. For one, the US Labor Department was forced a few weeks…

Today's US jobless claims report makes clear that the boost from re-opening is now fading. And a second wave of job loss is upon us. As a result, while the US unemployment rate declined more than expected in the last jobs report, I expect…

Around the time that the re-opening rally began to consolidate, I developed a thesis that we would have to wait until September and October before we would know more clearly how the economy would perform over the medium-term. And my view…