Jobs

Different parts of the global economy are in very different places right now. And the sense I am getting is that this will have meaning only over the medium term. Over the longer-term, there will be a collective recovery. How robust the…

I am writing this initial part just after 8AM EDT while I await the jobless claims. I told you on Monday I expect a big number = larger than most. And I will update you when the claims come in, as I write. But I want to talk about the…

I did a quick experiment with US initial jobless claims for my colleagues at Real Vision for today's Daily Briefing. And because the results were so interesting, I thought I'd post them here despite having just posted earlier this morning.…

Framing the economic path This is just a quick update on how I am thinking about the US economy. I am going to put this outside the paywall for once in order to update everyone. I'll put the run-up to today in a bullet point framework up…

Very briefly here The jobs numbers coming out the US today are emblematic of the re-opening recovery that has fuelled the rally in US equity markets. Payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June, adding to the upwardly revised 2.7 million on May.…

The retail sales data coming out this morning makes clear that the recession that began in February is now over. The forward-looking questions go to what the shape of the recovery looks like, what the policy response will be and how asset…

I took a hiatus from writing for a few days to see if I could get a clearer perspective. But, the reality is that there is no visibility to anything going forward. Making longer-term predictions is probably a fool's errand then.…

I am waiting for the jobs numbers out of the US as I begin this post. On Wednesday, we got a preview via the private sector unemployment numbers released by ADP. They showed a loss of more than 20 million jobs, which was pretty much in line…

This weekend was a good one, with nothing too exciting roiling markets. So, rather than focussing on the near term, let me get out my crystal ball today and tell you what I see coming down the line. I'll break it up into discrete bits…

The tenor of my recent posts to subscribers has been mostly about the real world economic outcomes being worse than anticipated. Today's data flow is no different. Earlier today, I talked about the abysmal PMI numbers in Europe and the…