Jobs

I have been trying to write an all-encompassing post for the new year for two weeks now. But time has never allowed it. So I've decided to forego that and get something out to you on what I am thinking as 2020 begins. First and foremost,…

Quick post outside the paywall here on some of the data coming out of the US recently FedEx bellwether I wanted to start with FedEx because it is often considered a bellwether of the US economy given its position at the center of shipping…

There's been a lot of economic data coming out of the US in recent days. None of it shows a clear indication that the economy has turned the corner. Some of the early data on housing was good. But, more recently, the numbers have been…

It's been a while since I had a public post on Credit Writedowns. So I thought now would be a good time to post given Wednesday's Fed rate decision and presser and today's jobs report. I think this one-two punch is a big deal. And that's…

The US jobs report released just earlier this morning showed the US economy adding 136,000 jobs to payrolls in September, with the unemployment rate declining to a 50-year low of 3.5%. This is the latest in a batch of economic data showing…

None of the metrics I look at are screaming recession right now. In fact, for the US, some of the data is improving. Nevertheless, there is reason to be concerned about the state of the US economy in mid-2019 - so much so that my base case…

The latest jobs report out of the US was relatively poor. While the comprehensive U-6 unemployment rate went down to the lowest since 2000, other data points suggested the labor market is topping. And with bond markets already predicting a…

Today's jobs report in the US showed some fairly bullish headline numbers. Not only did the unemployment rate did to a 49-year low of 3.6%, but the monster 263,000 job addition was bolstered by net revisions of 16,000, bringing the total to…

After the Fed overtightened in 2018, it reversed course abruptly. And risk assets have cheered the Fed's volte face with a V-shaped surge to new highs. And, coincidentally (since Fed policy acts with a lag), the economic data have turned up…

Real quick here today, since I'm supposed to be on Holiday. The data out this morning in the US were extremely bullish in my view. And, as I've been saying April data would make or break the economic re-acceleration thesis, I am finally…