Jobs

By Will Abel, Silvana Tenreyro, and Gregory Thwaites This post first appeared on Vox. The growing prominence of giant companies in advanced economies has raised concerns about the increase in monopoly power (e.g. Eeckhout and de Loecker…

The numbers Now, about the jobs numbers, here are the headline numbers: An increase of 312,000 in December in non-farm payrolls based on the business survey. That is well in excess of the consensus estimate for 178,000. Revisions of…

I will continue my 2019 outlook pieces in the coming days. But we've seen a lot of data out today. I think what we're seeing will have a bearing on rate policy, especially given what's happening in the bond market, something I discussed…

Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida gave a speech just yesterday on future monetary policy called "Data Dependence and U.S. Monetary Policy". Let's look at what he had to say as we await Chairman Powell's own speech today.

This morning, I gave you an initial reaction to the jobs number, saying: A bad number won’t change the Fed’s forward guidance because the Fed has a tightening bias. But that bias means that a good number could tip us toward four rate hikes…

The latest monthly report on the employment situation in the US saw the unemployment rate dip to its lowest level since 1969. While the addition to non-farm payrolls was below expectations, upward revisions to prior months made this a very…

China’s debt problems have emerged so much more rapidly and severely this year than in the past that a growing number of analysts believe that this may be the year that China’s economy breaks. There is no question that China will have a…

The title of this daily post is a bit dramatic, I know. But that's what I came up with when I thought about some of the themes I intend to write about today. It's on my mind because of the news cycle and what I've been reading. But some…

Today's daily newsletter is very late but hopefully still useful. Yesterday I said I have a few thoughts on China that I want to run by you. I didn't get them out yesterday. So I will incorporate them into today's post. Feedback appreciated…

Despite a 43-year low in UK unemployment rates, wage earners are losing ground. As the Bank of England decides how to respond, we can see signs of a global tightening in monetary policy.