Thoughts on my September and October thesis playing out
Around the time that the re-opening rally began to consolidate, I developed a thesis that we would have to wait until September and October before we would know more clearly how the economy would perform over the medium-term. And my view…
Some thoughts on US jobs numbers and market volatility
I have three threads I want to say a few words on: jobless claims, the jobs report and recent market volatility. I think the macro theme that connects them is about a reversion to the mean' in real economy versus financial economy…
Two takeaways from today’s market meltdown
Markets were down today, sending the US market to its worst loss since June. Given that I have been writing about downside market risk, I thought I would make a few comments.
First, let me say that one bad day isn't a big deal. In fact,…
Fixing the jobless claims numbers
The fix
I am writing this just before the release of the US jobless claims data series. And for weeks now, I have been telling you that the unemployment claim series was distorted by a multiplicative seasonal factor. See here and here.…
The convergence to zero trade end, volatility edition
This is an update to yesterday's post about the inability of safe asset holdings to mitigate downside risk during equity drawdowns. As you know, I believe we are about to enter a potentially volatile period in the markets in September and…
Portfolio implications as the convergence to zero trade ends
At the beginning of 2015, I began to push an investment thesis for fixed income that has had a lot of upside, but that I believe has finally played out. I want to discuss why that thesis mattered, why it's dead and what will replace it.…
The policy world we live in and its implications
I had two related tweetstorms this morning whose logic I want to flesh out a bit with you. They relate to the existing macro policy world we live in and how that affects outcomes. The long and short is that the outcomes are sub-optimal and…
Growth downshift, yes. But how much?
A lot of the data coming out of the US of late reinforces the concept that the V-shaped recovery is flattening out. Meanwhile, in Europe, which has outperformed the US on a currency-adjusted basis, the question now is whether that…
Initial claims and the fiscal cliff update
Quick post here on jobless claims
I want to lead with what I wrote yesterday:
In terms of real-time data, initial jobless claims are where the rubber hits the road. They are declining but elevated. A steady-state post-recessionary economy…
Signals to watch as crucial fall season approaches
My view for the last several weeks is that September and October is where the rubber hits the road for the US economy. By that time, the second spike in coronavirus cases will have diminished and we will get a more realistic forward-looking…