IMF backs Fed rate pause citing rising global risks, Japan decelerates
The post this morning on the evolving strategy of Germany's SPD was actually yesterday's post. I didn't get a chance to write it because I went to bed super early. So I am going to write a short piece for today's post focussing on Japan,…
German Social Democrats abandoning third way rhetoric
There is a shift going on in Germany which has the center-left party moving away from the center after disastrous election results. And I think this is a significant signpost of the center-left's abandonment of the policies championed by…
On speculation about the ECB restarting QE due to slowing growth
This is one of the occasional free Credit Writedowns posts I write. If you like what you read please consider subscribing to the weekday newsletter. Right now, we are running a limited promotion where you can receive it at a 40% discount.…
Jobless claims are now flashing red too
I just got this via email from the US Labor Department:
In the week ending February 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 253,000. The…
Framework for trading the coming dollar liquidity crisis
For the past decade since the financial crisis, China has largely supplied incremental global liquidity. This is a fundamental change from previous decades where the US was the fulcrum. But, today the Chinese have realized they can no…
Some insights into (declining) US economic health
In the US stock market, technology stocks are leading the rally from the deeply oversold levels in December. And that has a lot of people thinking the worst is over. But this is just a relief rally. The real economy is actually…
How markets will behave given central banks are still too tight
The last update I gave you on the market in the aftermath of the ECB's policy statement was about central banks being too tight. The gist of my remarks was that CBs are all poised to tighten, if and when the data allow them to do so. This…
I have joined Real Vision
I haven't made a public statement yet, nor has Real Vision for that matter. But, for the last few weeks I have been working at Real Vision, the online financial media company led by Raoul Pal. Perhaps I will make it public in the coming few…
The Fed is reacting to slowing global growth, not asset markets
Note: this post is going out via Patreon and Credit Writedowns. So, you may get duplicate emails. I am just doing this to alert anyone that is only getting emails on one platform to ping me at edh@creditwritedowns.com, so I can fix that.…
Powell’s Mao Moment
By Marc Chandler
This first appeared on Marc's site, Marc to Market
In the iconography of Mao, some see pictures of the Chairman showing both ears as signaling that he was listening to all the people. In this sense, Powell had his Mao…