Expect a dovish hold from the Fed despite the jobs report
I know it's pure folly to predict what the Fed is likely to do on a FOMC meeting by meeting basis. But hear me out. Despite the fact that I see the Fed looking to remain as tight as they can reasonably be in order to save up firepower for…
Some thoughts on illegal immigration
The Washington Post has a post up today on how two housekeepers took on the president — and revealed that his company employed undocumented immigrants. I sent it to a friend. And the exchange we had about the article made me think a bit…
A breakdown of the post-war global Western alliance
Everybody's talking about this video of G-7 leaders laughing at US President Donald Trump during the recent NATO summit. While most people are just giggling about it, I think it reflects a much deeper issue. Take a look.
.@JustinTrudeau,…
US economic outlook mixed as manufacturing continues to slow
There's been a lot of economic data coming out of the US in recent days. None of it shows a clear indication that the economy has turned the corner. Some of the early data on housing was good. But, more recently, the numbers have been…
MMT Heaven and MMT Hell
There are conditions under which governments can create money—or debt—without fear of inflation or excessive debt burdens. There are other conditions under which debt or money creation can lead to inflation and balance sheet problems.
Economic growth and social contracts in rich countries
Impeachment
In the last couple of weeks, at the expense of other thoughts, I have been consumed by the impeachment proceedings going on in the United States. I guess this is a byproduct of my having been born in, growing up in and now…
Where are we on growth and macro policy right now?
I think it's a good time to outline where we are in this business cycle right now because a number of factors are coming together to present a larger picture in the US both in terms of growth and the policy response to that growth.
The Fed…
This jobs report is a game-changer regarding monetary policy. Here’s why
It's been a while since I had a public post on Credit Writedowns. So I thought now would be a good time to post given Wednesday's Fed rate decision and presser and today's jobs report. I think this one-two punch is a big deal. And that's…
Recession watch, Fed policy, wealth taxes and the 2020 US election
I want to tie a number of economic and political topics together today as a way of thinking about what the next 18 months in the US will mean. And a lot of it starts with the US domestic economy.
Recession watch
Over the past several years,…
The Fed’s overtightening and the shift to a fiscal paradigm
The Fed's discomfortFor the better part of 4 years, I have been telling you that the Federal Reserve has been uncomfortable with a mid-cycle role which required it to keep rates at zero percent. The Fed sees its role as principally reserved…