The US economy is doing fine and the jobs picture is good
The US jobs report released just earlier this morning showed the US economy adding 136,000 jobs to payrolls in September, with the unemployment rate declining to a 50-year low of 3.5%. This is the latest in a batch of economic data showing…
Inter-subjectivity, norms, the rule of law and Donald Trump
Inter-subjectivity
For the past couple of weeks, I have been listening to an audiobook recommended by a friend I recently visited in London. It
It's called Sapiens - and it bills itself as "a brief history of humankind". I find the book a…
The danger that WeWork poses
Shellacking the retail investor
I am glad WeWork is in the headlines these days, since I told you in May that I see it going to zero eventually. Now, I've been sanguine about a so-called bubble in these unicorns for a number of years. And…
WeWork as an intermediary with a duration mismatch
Back in May, I wrote a post I titled "2019 may be the best time to IPO". The gist of the post was that unicorns were seeing the best market conditions imaginable for conducting an initial public offering. But, the window for loss-making…
Policy divergence and the week’s monetary policy decisions
With the latest Fed and ECB rate policy decisions now behind us, we can start to assess what monetary policy means for the near-term future. I continue to be encouraged by near-term data flow in the US. Nothing in it reads recession.…
Watch for a re-emergence of the convergence to zero play
Understanding curve flattening
Long-time readers know that I have talked for a number of years about a longer-term global convergence to zero play that I see shaping up. It first emerged during the mid-cycle slowdown in 2015 and 2016 as…
Ever closer union and euroscepticism
I haven't written about Brexit in months now, largely because it has become so unpredictable that I have had nothing to say. After we saw the delay that I predicted in December, the whole affair has just had too many moving parts to know…
The dollar liquidity squeeze and Germany’s weak real economy
Real quick here on Europe as I promised yesterday to add some thoughts on Germany after my trip to Cologne
US base rates are too high
Take a look at this chart from Bianco Research.
Jim Bianco describes this as showing the US having the…
Positive thoughts on my return from Germany and London
I was in Cologne and London last week, two places I know quite well. And as I went out, my trip down memory lane was greeted by the eternal progress of human endeavour. Whether riding the frequently behind schedule Deutsche Bahn by the…
The end of global co-operation among liberal democracies
I am back from my beach vacation. So, let me outline what my thinking is after a period of reflection and how it has changed or stayed the same.
I last posted more than a week ago right before I left, regarding my frustration about…