The US economy is now on recession watch
Recession Watch
America's business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. Their primary fear: protectionist trade policy.
That is the topline finding of a report released Monday…
Henry George: The economist to watch in the 21st Century
I am sitting here diving into a brand new copy of a book - Progress and Poverty - that was written 140 years ago, in 1879. And it occurred to me I should write you about it because the ideas in this book are as relevant to the 21st century…
Very negative market signals
The economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we're seeing in financial markets right now suggests markets are discounting serious economic problems down the line.…
More on the Collapse of the Center
Splintering
I am in the process of editing a video at Real Vision where the founder, Raoul Pal, is talking to Dee Smith, the CEO of Strategic Insight Group. It's going to be released in early June. Interestingly, Dee Smith was making a lot…
American global hegemony is breaking down — here’s what could come next
By Marshall Auerback
This post was originally published on AlterNet
The breakdown in the Sino-U.S. trade talks has led a number of commentators to suggest that America’s “unipolar moment” of post-Cold War preeminence is over, as…
China Cannot Weaponize Its U.S. Treasury Bonds
A number of recent articles suggest that Chinese officials may reduce their purchases of U.S. government bonds. It is very unlikely that China can do so in any meaningful way because doing so would almost certainly be costly for Beijing.…
The Collapse of the Center
It's the politics, stupid?
Credit Writedowns is back. And right now, it's the politics that are on my mind more than the markets or the economics. I have had a long while to sit and think about what's been happening and where we're going.…
Automatic stabilizers and a neutral fiscal stance
Quick note here
Neutral Fiscal Policy
I mentioned 'augmented fiscal stabilizers' and a neutral fiscal policy in the last message. And subsequently, I thought I should link out to a piece I published on these topics two years ago. Read that…
China’s ‘weaponising’ Treasuries, automatic stabilizers, and investing versus…
Treasuries as a political weapon
If you don't have the right model of the economy and markets in your head, you can lose lots of money. Case in point is 'The Widowmaker Trade' in Japan where speculators misunderstood the limits of monetary…
The hardening trade war and the pause in IPO easy money
Like yesterday, I have a few thoughts on the economic headlines below. This one is behind the paywall though and I am going to focus mostly on two topics.
Yield curve inversion
At its worst yesterday, the risk-off play saw the 10-year…