How to interpret rising claims and the horrible retail sales figures
The Federal Reserve's about-face on rates between December and January looks a lot more rational in the context of the US economic data released today. We saw US retail sales unexpectedly fall in December, posting the worst drop in nine…
A few thoughts on the populist political environment in the US
Obama's missed opportunity
In 2009 and beyond, the Obama Administration had a unique opportunity to not just recalibrate, but to replace the existing economic paradigm. They didn't do that, largely because Obama and his closest policy…
IMF backs Fed rate pause citing rising global risks, Japan decelerates
The post this morning on the evolving strategy of Germany's SPD was actually yesterday's post. I didn't get a chance to write it because I went to bed super early. So I am going to write a short piece for today's post focussing on Japan,…
German Social Democrats abandoning third way rhetoric
There is a shift going on in Germany which has the center-left party moving away from the center after disastrous election results. And I think this is a significant signpost of the center-left's abandonment of the policies championed by…
On speculation about the ECB restarting QE due to slowing growth
This is one of the occasional free Credit Writedowns posts I write. If you like what you read please consider subscribing to the weekday newsletter. Right now, we are running a limited promotion where you can receive it at a 40% discount.…
Jobless claims are now flashing red too
I just got this via email from the US Labor Department:
In the week ending February 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 253,000. The…
Framework for trading the coming dollar liquidity crisis
For the past decade since the financial crisis, China has largely supplied incremental global liquidity. This is a fundamental change from previous decades where the US was the fulcrum. But, today the Chinese have realized they can no…
Some insights into (declining) US economic health
In the US stock market, technology stocks are leading the rally from the deeply oversold levels in December. And that has a lot of people thinking the worst is over. But this is just a relief rally. The real economy is actually…
How markets will behave given central banks are still too tight
The last update I gave you on the market in the aftermath of the ECB's policy statement was about central banks being too tight. The gist of my remarks was that CBs are all poised to tighten, if and when the data allow them to do so. This…
I have joined Real Vision
I haven't made a public statement yet, nor has Real Vision for that matter. But, for the last few weeks I have been working at Real Vision, the online financial media company led by Raoul Pal. Perhaps I will make it public in the coming few…