Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt
Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US.
Yesterday, news came out that Biden is…
Winning the footrace against the variants and approaching the new normal
Winning the footrace
If you look at the SARS-CoV-2 case counts in the United States, they're flat to declining over the past two weeks. The fourth wave of the coronavirus in the US has been more muted than previous waves.
And while some…
The Crypto land grab concept and technological displacement
At RealVision, we have a whole group and a whole suite of video interviews dedicated to Crypto. But I am considered a macro guy at RV. And so, I try to stay out of the crypto side of things except to the degree it relates to traditional…
A quick word on bond vigilantism and market mania
I am sceptical of the long-term durability of this cycle. But, we have to remember that we had a record-long economic cycle after the Great Financial Crisis. And now, policymakers are not willing to accept impotence, either on the monetary…
Crypto: a sea change in how we gain trust
I have a conversation scheduled for 4PM today with Real Vision CEO and Co-Founder Raoul Pal. And I wanted to use today's newsletter as a 'prep' for that discussion. Raoul has become quite ensconced in the cryptocurrency world and sees that…
The ‘interregnum’ of risks to the upside as yields turn down
Just now, I was looking through the Credit Writedowns archives, searching for the phrase "to the upside" because, today I am thinking about risks being upside risks rather than downside risks. The data released this morning confirm that.…
More on inflation, the mutant wave in Canada, the stall in rates and the new normal
This post is a bit of a catch all on what's happening right now because there is no dominant theme consuming markets. After the spike higher in rates, we have seen the first real consolidation wave. And so the trends that drove market…
The inflation bogeyman and the Fed reaction function
Listen, the big news today is that, yesterday, I got the first shot of a two-shot Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination dose. I feel well less than 100% today to be honest. But my spirits are good. The next appointment is in three weeks. Within a…
Context for my bullish outlook in the US
Happy Tuesday!
For me, it's actually like a Monday because I took a 5-day holiday over Easter and am coming back to work today with relatively fresh eyes. So, let me make this a longer post, telling you what I am thinking and why I am…
Bullish news on the US jobs front
Real quick on this Good Friday
The US jobs report for March was superb. We got everything we wanted to see except an improvement in hourly earnings. In my view, this report bolsters the case for upside risk for the economy and inflation…