The business cycle and credit, defaults, and bankruptcies
I want to put a little more meat on the bones regarding the section of yesterday's post on credit, defaults and bankruptcies with some numbers. I would contend that credit cycles lead garden-variety business cycle turns. So, absent a Black…
Sanguine about the near term but concerned about future trends
The line that sticks out for me from my last post in re-reading it went something like this: "So, now I am in the uncomfortable position of being relatively sanguine about the near term but concerned about future trends." I want to expand…
Continued high jobless claims, no stimulus and coronavirus
The jobless claims series came out again this morning showing 840,000 initial claims plus a modest revision upward of last week's number to 849,000. These numbers just aren't coming down fast enough. And we know from the last recovery that…
No stimulus, no problem?
The calls for fiscal relief by the Federal Reserve have apparently fallen on deaf ears, as US President Trump pulled out of negotiations for a stimulus package last night. Asset markets were all over the place as investors digested the…
David Rosenberg and the corona crisis as a depression
I know everyone is still talking about President Trump's contracting coronavirus. But I want to talk about the virus from a different, more economic lens. That's because I was talking to the excellent David Rosenberg last week about the…
Economic downshift sinking in?
I want to run something by you here. It's entirely speculative but there are multiple threads hanging off of it that give me reason to speculate. It's about the trajectory of the US (and global economy) and signs that growth is slowing.…
An update on momentum stocks as a secular stagnation play
Back in August I told you I had a thesis I was working on fleshing out about why growth stocks are so loved and why growth has trumped value for years and continues to do. The first post on this is here. But let me provide an update today.…
Jobless claims remain dangerously elevated
The US Department of Labor released the latest jobless claims report this morning and the numbers were poor. From their email, announcing the figures:
In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial…
Get while the getting is good (and more on jobless claims)
Quick post here on jobless claims
Data collection difficulties
Data collection is a real challenge during this pandemic. And the US jobless claims data set is telling on that score. For one, the US Labor Department was forced a few weeks…
Search and Simplicity: The Silver Bullets of the Internet
I want to try something slightly different today, and go 'off-topic' with some content that more fits the Credit Writedowns blog of yore, when I covered a much wider range of topics. And so, this post is going to be about technology,…