Where are we on growth and macro policy right now?
I think it's a good time to outline where we are in this business cycle right now because a number of factors are coming together to present a larger picture in the US both in terms of growth and the policy response to that growth.
The Fed…
This jobs report is a game-changer regarding monetary policy. Here’s why
It's been a while since I had a public post on Credit Writedowns. So I thought now would be a good time to post given Wednesday's Fed rate decision and presser and today's jobs report. I think this one-two punch is a big deal. And that's…
Recession watch, Fed policy, wealth taxes and the 2020 US election
I want to tie a number of economic and political topics together today as a way of thinking about what the next 18 months in the US will mean. And a lot of it starts with the US domestic economy.
Recession watch
Over the past several years,…
The Fed’s overtightening and the shift to a fiscal paradigm
The Fed's discomfortFor the better part of 4 years, I have been telling you that the Federal Reserve has been uncomfortable with a mid-cycle role which required it to keep rates at zero percent. The Fed sees its role as principally reserved…
Trump impeachment strategy makes Elizabeth Warren and Democratic sweep possible
The latest polling data show Americans in favour of an impeachment investigation, one that the White House is telling government officials and allies to impede. I think this is an error in strategy by Trump. And the ultimate consequence may…
The US economy is doing fine and the jobs picture is good
The US jobs report released just earlier this morning showed the US economy adding 136,000 jobs to payrolls in September, with the unemployment rate declining to a 50-year low of 3.5%. This is the latest in a batch of economic data showing…
Inter-subjectivity, norms, the rule of law and Donald Trump
Inter-subjectivity
For the past couple of weeks, I have been listening to an audiobook recommended by a friend I recently visited in London. It
It's called Sapiens - and it bills itself as "a brief history of humankind". I find the book a…
The danger that WeWork poses
Shellacking the retail investor
I am glad WeWork is in the headlines these days, since I told you in May that I see it going to zero eventually. Now, I've been sanguine about a so-called bubble in these unicorns for a number of years. And…
WeWork as an intermediary with a duration mismatch
Back in May, I wrote a post I titled "2019 may be the best time to IPO". The gist of the post was that unicorns were seeing the best market conditions imaginable for conducting an initial public offering. But, the window for loss-making…
Policy divergence and the week’s monetary policy decisions
With the latest Fed and ECB rate policy decisions now behind us, we can start to assess what monetary policy means for the near-term future. I continue to be encouraged by near-term data flow in the US. Nothing in it reads recession.…