Re-opening, the pandemic and a potential double dip
This is going to be a relatively short post (I hope). My aim is just to bring together all of the thinking from my recent posts into one shorter narrative. And I'm hoping I can do that successfully here. So, here goes
Pre-lockdown economy…
The coronavirus pandemic is worsening
As this is a finance site, I have tended to steer clear of writing about what's happening with the novel coronavirus. But, that's hard to do since it is the single most important factor in all of our lives. So, I'm going to give you an…
Fed asset purchases and Hyman Minsky’s two price system
Earlier this morning I tweeted an old blog post I wrote two years ago because I think it's relevant to what's happening in the economy right now. And so, I want to use this post to explain what that old post was about, and how that old post…
The recession is over
The retail sales data coming out this morning makes clear that the recession that began in February is now over. The forward-looking questions go to what the shape of the recovery looks like, what the policy response will be and how asset…
My thoughts on the present re-opening rally hiccup
Later today, I am talking to Ash Bennington, my friend and colleague at Real Vision, on our Daily Briefing about what's going on in the market and the economy right now. And I'd like to use this note at Credit Writedowns to help me collect…
This feels like a phase shift
This week I have been making the case for fading this market re-opening rally. I did not expect it to fall apart straight away. But yesterday we saw the first chinks in the armor. So let me tell you what I'm thinking now. This will be…
Some thoughts on the bullish narrative
We have started an experiment at Real Vision on our Daily Briefing where we have guest commentators more often. Our usual European commentator, Roger Hirst, is out for two weeks. And so we thought it would be a good opportunity to mix…
The real economy and equity market mania
All eyes today are on the Federal Reserve because the Federal Open Market Committee is due to release its policy statement. There is an unusual amount of interest in what Fed Chairman Jay Powell says at the subsequent press conference…
Worries about a retail investor-led speculative mania
I am in the middle of watching an entertaining interview of Mark Cuban by Larry McDonald on Real Vision right now. I haven't got to the part to which I assume the title refers: "Mark Cuban — This Feels a Lot Like the Internet Bubble". But,…
Positive sentiment, the oil price rally and re-opening
At the end of April, I wrote a bullish piece centered on an economic snapback after the re-opening, in large part because of pervasive bearish sentiment. I called it "Negative sentiment, the oil price collapse and re-opening business".…