ADP and claims data show US employment progress
We got reads from two US jobs data series this morning. And both showed continued forward progress. To me, this speaks to the potential for tapering of the Fed's large scale asset purchase program in the Fall.
We got the ADP private…
The macro crystal ball: macro framing and historical antecedents
Happy June!!
Listen, I want to start this month with a thought piece rather than a data piece. And this is going to be a pretty long post. But I think it's important because I plan to build on it.
Now, I showed you some data last week on…
Where were claims at this point in the last cycle?
To understand the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve's tapering timetable being accelerated, I believe we have to understand how quickly the US employment market improves relative to expectations. That's because the Fed's unstated bias in…
How transitory is transitory, housing edition?
In yesterday's post, the question was this: how bad do inflationary impulses have to get - even if they're just transitory - to matter? The Fed is telling you they have to get pretty bad for it to react. And with US Treasury bond yields sat…
How Transitory is Transitory?
The interplay between a central bank's forward guidance and market expectations are where the rubber hits the road on long-term interest rates. It's not as easy as divining what a central bank wants to do or what market participants think…
Chinese regulation, the top of the market and investing in the future
I was talking to my colleague Jack Farley about the financial news flow earlier today. (We're recording a Real Vision Daily Briefing at 4:30PM EDT). He and I agreed that crypto seemed to dominate the headlines. But he and I are also sick of…
Europe: Don’t call it a comeback
I have four things on my mind today: Bullish PMIs in Europe, the electric Ford F-150 launch, non-payment on bond by Unicredit, and the Biden Administration's non-embrace of MMT. Let's take each of these in turn
European economic data
Look…
Buy the rumour and sell the news aka sell in May and go away
I am writing this just before the NY open of US markets. And we have the makings of serious losses on the back of an absolute pounding in the cryptocurrency space. There, the largest asset, Bitcoin, has been cut in half with most of the…
European tech is about to explode
You know, as I started writing today, I tried to think of a headline to suck you in. If you're reading these words, you're either a loyal reader or you got sucked in, which was my purpose. So let me tell you where I'm going with this.
At…
Will the Fed(s) stay the course?
This post on the bond vigilantes is inspired in part by my friend Kevin Muir and a post he just did over at The Macro Tourist. It's also inspired by the inflation numbers that came out of the US earlier today. The question to answer: how…