Policy errors during a balance sheet recession and 25% unemployment
I ended yesterday's post writing that the only thing one could predict with certainty was that there will be policy errors going forward. When faced with so much uncertainty on both the healthcare front and on economic policy, it's…
Hope reigns supreme despite the poor economic outlook
I took a hiatus from writing for a few days to see if I could get a clearer perspective. But, the reality is that there is no visibility to anything going forward. Making longer-term predictions is probably a fool's errand then.…
The jobs picture, coronavirus response protocols and mental health
I am waiting for the jobs numbers out of the US as I begin this post. On Wednesday, we got a preview via the private sector unemployment numbers released by ADP. They showed a loss of more than 20 million jobs, which was pretty much in line…
Handicapping economic outcomes after the third phase of recession
We are now entering the insolvency phase of this recession, where, despite government's best efforts, the weakest companies go under and unemployment rises. This shakeout will take months. But the economy will rebound out of recession well…
Sweden’s economy holding up as the rest of Europe suffers
Although the title of this post focuses on Sweden, I intend it to mostly be a links post with various sub-themes. The idea is to share the news flow I am seeing across different countries.
Since this is the first links post in a while,…
Entering the third phase of recession
Last week, a friend from business school who I met up with in New York in early March told me she had taken an antibody test for coronavirus and came back positive. Her first thought was about donating blood, whereas my first thought was…
My take on the three d’s of depression
Real quick here because I am a bit under the weather
The snapback
This morning I retweeted a tweet by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm about the dire economic numbers in the US, saying:
Can we call this a depression already? What…
Gauging post-lockdown economic outcomes as the US economy contracts 4.8%
The model
I have a bit of a problem. I am not sure how to put today's post together. What I plan to dissect is the economic outlook as we escape coronavirus lockdowns. But, economies are so complex and the outlook is so uncertain that it's…
Negative sentiment, the oil price collapse and re-opening business
Today's newsletter is going to be more of a potpourri from the international economic and market news flow than a theme-specific post. Before I proceed, let me say a few words about the dire sentiment associated with this pandemic.
Negative…
Bullish thoughts about Europe’s recovery
It's easy to get pessimistic, looking at the economic outlook from the US, which has been a laggard during the coronavirus pandemic. The United States has a ways to go before a semblance of economic normalcy returns.
But I have been…