Three economic policy debates
Happy Monday!
Let's take a break from all of the angst about Brexit, about the US shutdown, and slowing global growth and look at some overarching macro policy debates that are relevant to this economic cycle. I've put forward my own views…
The border wall and the Fed’s reaction function
Two issues I mentioned yesterday need some clarification.
Trump will declare a state of emergency for the Wall
The first is the shutdown. It's this quote that needs clarification:
The longer the shutdown goes on, the more damage it will do.…
The oil bull market, IPO freeze, weak UK data and preventing no-deal Brexit
Today's daily post is going to a true daily, covering a wide range of market and political economy news.
Forcing government to rule out no deal
And I want to start with Brexit because I think this is one of the most pressing issues in the…
Some comments on the shutdown, Fed policy and the markets
On today's market action
Today saw the S&P 500 rise for the fourth straight day, the longest up-streak since September. And that puts us up 10% since Christmas Eve. Crude is rallying too , with WTI gaining almost 5% on the day to…
Brexit: Why Article 50 revocation is now on the table for Britain
The Brexit news is coming hot and heavy now. The latest out of the UK is that House of Commons Speaker John Bercow has allowed an attempt to force Prime Minister Theresa May’s hand on the Brexit deal.
The Commons Speaker will allow MPs to…
British MPs have voted to stop a no-deal Brexit
After I wrote today's post on Brexit, the following news came out - and I think it's significant:
Theresa May faces a concerted campaign of parliamentary warfare from a powerful cross-party alliance of MPs determined to use every lever at…
Market recovery but expect volatility to remain
The trading day is over in the US and the numbers look good. Equity markets have recovered smartly from last weeks nosedive, with all major US indices up about 1%. Notable for me is the fact that WTI is trading close to $50 a barrel and the…
Credit Writedowns 2019 Outlook, Part 2 – Brexit
I've been thinking about how to write this piece on the outlook for the political economy in the UK for a number of days. I had it teed up to finish yesterday. But I have left it until today. Apologies
I still have the bias that economics…
Despite perception Powell was dovish, the yield curve remains super-inverted
I mentioned earlier today that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had a joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019…
Some thoughts on today’s 312,000 jobs added to the economy
The numbers
Now, about the jobs numbers, here are the headline numbers:
An increase of 312,000 in December in non-farm payrolls based on the business survey. That is well in excess of the consensus estimate for 178,000.
Revisions of…