Initial jobless claims rise 100,000, unadjusted claims fall 100,000
I am writing this initial part just after 8AM EDT while I await the jobless claims. I told you on Monday I expect a big number = larger than most. And I will update you when the claims come in, as I write. But I want to talk about the…
Why initial jobless claims are going to go through the roof
I did a quick experiment with US initial jobless claims for my colleagues at Real Vision for today's Daily Briefing. And because the results were so interesting, I thought I'd post them here despite having just posted earlier this morning.…
News suggests major economic and political challenges ahead
The news flow this weekend was not particularly uplifting either here in the US or in Europe. Overall, the composite I get is one that dovetails with the downside risks I have outlined on both sides of the Atlantic - in the US it is…
Political impasse over jobless claims just as they mushroom
Framing the economic path
This is just a quick update on how I am thinking about the US economy. I am going to put this outside the paywall for once in order to update everyone. I'll put the run-up to today in a bullet point framework up…
The information silo
This is my first time posting in a week. There was a combination of factors that kept me away from the newsletter like pressing work at Real Vision and a lack of revealing economic data flow. But, the biggest factor was the coronavirus news…
Data show W-shaped recovery is taking hold
As I write this, I am waiting for the latest jobless claims data out of the US to be released. But, irrespective of what the data show, unfortunately we are seeing a W-shaped pattern to economic data. And that looks set to continue. Some…
Bears forced to raise targets
I am back from the 4th of July weekend here in the US. I have a few new thoughts to share with you today. But, my overall macro view remains the same - namely that the US has recovered from recession but downside risks to the US economy and…
‘Bullish’ takeaways from US jobs data
Very briefly here
The jobs numbers coming out the US today are emblematic of the re-opening recovery that has fuelled the rally in US equity markets. Payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June, adding to the upwardly revised 2.7 million on May.…
News flow as European shares outperform the US
Happy Wednesday. From what I can discern, the macro outlook is largely unchanged today. So, I thought I'd take a stab at presenting the news flow that most grabs my attention to put it in context for you.
The framing here is that we…
Some brief thoughts on the second coronavirus spike and financial markets
With financial markets seemingly untethered from the real economy, it's not clear what impact differential viral outcomes will have on risk assets. Because of central bank intervention and the potential of that intervention to put a floor…