Economy

I am now stuffed with Turkey after days sitting around eating for the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US. Today is Black Friday, the biggest day of the year for retail sales. And so it makes sense to write this newsletter post today.  I…

The impression you get from a recent piece in Politico is that, yes, the Trump economy is in for tough sledding ahead: President Donald Trump, already in a grumpy post-midterm mood, faces a growing list of economic problems that could…

The big news this morning is the slowing growth in China. The third quarter numbers showed the country growing at its slowest pace in a decade. And the questions now are whether this slowdown continues and what China does about it. This is…

The latest monthly report on the employment situation in the US saw the unemployment rate dip to its lowest level since 1969. While the addition to non-farm payrolls was below expectations, upward revisions to prior months made this a very…

There was a slew of PMI data released yesterday. And the ISM released it's manufacturing numbers for the US as well. Almost all of the data were bullish and supports the idea that this economic expansion has legs for the rest of 2018 and…

I am sending this out to everyone on the distro today because I am going on vacation/holiday for the next week and I won't be near a computer for all of that time. There will be no Credit Writedowns posts all this next week!! So I want to…

Yesterday's daily featured four views on a potential global recession and financial crisis by the end of the year 2020. Nouriel Roubini had the view I think easiest to deconstruct because he lays out ten separate trigger points that could…

Is the fiscal debate political or market-driven? The eponymous debate in the US over government spending, debt and deficits is whether the issues are fundamentally market-driven or politically-motivated. For example, recently Trump economic…

Increasingly, prognosticators are talking about a recession in the United States by 2020. But not everyone is onboard with those predictions. Moreover, arguments vary both in terms of why a recession would take hold and in what the likely…

Quick note here to update you on some of the macro data I continue to be bullish on the near-term US economy. As I wrote this morning, the Q2 and Q3 GDP numbers are both showing more than 4% growth. And with the ISM Manufacturing data…