Update on the US jobs data
I was out when the US jobs numbers came out on Friday. But they were good. And strangely, that's particularly because the unemployment rate increased.
GDPNow still near 4%, showing Q2 likely to be a monster quarter
The Fed is likely to continue to talk up the US economy. And I believe markets will react. With the yield curve at 32 basis points spread between 2- and 1-year Treasuries, we still have scope for further curve flattening.
Continued economic expansion and curve flattening dominate US data flow
GDPNow for the second quarter is still at a breathtakingly high 4.5%. And it's beginning to look like we are going to come in well above 3% growth for the quarter. Consensus estimates are at 3.5%. Meanwhile the yield curve continues to…
The threats to economic growth are rising
This is a 2019 outcome. For now, it's smooth sailing economically. But when this cycle turn, it will turn hard.
The Fed’s dual mandate and taking away the punch bowl
Once upon a time, Fed policy wasn't about finetuning macro outcomes. It was about maintaining the safety, siundness and stability of our banking and credit system.
Non-Manufacturing ISM furthers the upside economic data surprises
This report shows the US economy in a good way. In terms of things the Fed watches, both employment and inflation look good.
US macro data support fourth rate hike in 2018
The macro data are good enough for the Fed to dismiss economic concerns for adding a hike in December. The market is only pricing in this hike at 33.2%.
What the latest jobs report says about the US economy
The biggest positive takeaway is that trend growth in non-farm payrolls is heading up. For me, it suggests that the economy has legs.
Greenback’s Inability to Rally on Strong Employment Report is Noteworthy
By Marc Chandler This post first appeared on Marc to Market The US jobs data was stronger than expected and yet the impact on the dollar is modest. The market is as confident of a hike at the June 13 FOMC meeting as it gets about…
Jobs number puts four hikes on the table. Watch for QT increase and curve flattening
The US jobs number just came out and the figures were quite good. Two-year yields spiked on the news.