Economy

Global growth has been slowing. But we have plenty of time before a recession or financial crisis hits. My worries are about financial fragility caused by high asset prices and corporate releveraging.

We should expect the Fed's tightening to continue. But a lot of the recent incoming data has been soft. And while this may just be a blip, I expect the curve to flatten further by mid-year.

Normally, we think of trade as a story of spendthrift nations 'living beyond their means' and saver nations being productive. In this view, savers are virtuous and spenders are sinful. And the easiest way to see who the saints and sinners…

China's debt build-up has provoked increasing concern amongst Beijing’s policy makers. The resultant excess capacity exports deflation to the rest of the world. This creates pressures for China’s competitors which could engender a tougher…

Lingering concerns about long-term unemployment notwithstanding, inflation has taken center stage. The most recent jobs report, while weak, does little to diminish the Fed's view that rates need to move higher.

The US Department of Labor released poor data for jobless claims this week. The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 242,000. This is the last piece of data to come out before the jobs report.

There are growing signs that a trade war is possible, and that the multilateral trading system may not be able to prevent it. This column asks what would happen with tariffs around the world if countries were to move from cooperative tariff…

A recent literature has explored growing personal wealth inequality in countries around the world. This column explores the widening wealth gap between regions and across states in Europe. Using data going back to 1900, it shows that…

The big news today is Donald Trump's sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Is the confrontational path that Donald Trump is choosing a precursor to an economic shock? Irrespective, I expect elevated volatility to remain a feature…

There is no indication that average hourly earnings are moving sustainably higher. And therefore, there is no indication that average hourly earnings have any inflationary consequences.