Economy

We are not at full employment. Don't give up on the people who have dropped out of the labor force. There are jobs waiting for them, if we allow this thing to run.

In my view, the US economy is not red-hot. I don't fear overheating. But I believe the Fed does. And it will act accordingly.The regime shift is happening now. We'll just have to see how the economy responds.

People are now talking about a trade war. But How will Trump implement his tariff plan? Who will the targets be? How will they respond? What will the economic and political ramifications be? We simply don't know. There will be great…

Increasing demand is key to growth in advanced economies. And that means higher wages are necessary. But the redistribution of national income toward capital over the past generation has undermined the capacity of ordinary households to…

Pro-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies exacerbate the challenge that lies ahead. Although the world enjoys a synchronized expansion, the Great Financial Crisis may not be truly over until the downside of this business cycle is managed.

The rise in inflation is necessary but not sufficient to force the Fed to tighten even more aggressively than it has forecast.

With the Fed already on notice about inflation because of “low, low unemployment”, massive amounts of new deficit spending will only move up their timetable. And bond rates will rise as a result.

A big upward revision in the data would be what the President would call an unwelcome ‘good news’ surprise.

Reuters has done a state-by-state analysis of wage data in the US, showing average pay rising over 3% in more than half of US states. This puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Non-farm payrolls were up 200,000 versus 180,000 expected and average hourly earnings were up 2.9% on the year