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Economy
Jobs report adds no new information about economy; Fed still on track for 3 hikes in 2018
The US Labor Department released a very ho-hum jobs report this morning, showing the unemployment rate in line with expectations at 4.1%, but with the economy only adding 148,000, below the 190,000 expected. Overall, the report provided no…
Wages might finally be beginning to rise
The Wall Street Journal has a piece out about wage rates in the tightest urban markets like Minneapolis. And what they found is that wages rates in these markets is beginning to rise. That doesn't mean inflation will rise. However, it does…
ADP and jobless claims show a tightening job market
The jobless claims report released this morning shows a labor market that is supportive of continued growth. Combined with a much better than expected 250,000 increase in private payrolls in the ADP report, the claims data give us every…
ISM Manufacturing index shows US in brisk expansion; Fed to respond
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December 2017, marking the 103rd consecutive month of economic expansion in the US. The numbers point to a continued brisk pace of expansion, likely inviting multiple Fed policy…
Eurozone winners and losers
The eurozone is fully recovered from the sovereign debt crisis. And that’s been true since early in 2016. But it’s only now that big growth is kicking into high gear as the synchronized global upturn takes hold. But who are the winners and…
The eurozone is fully recovered from the sovereign debt crisis
The European PMIs that came out today showed an EU economy that is not just in full recovery mode, but booming. Likely the ECB will reduce its level of accommodation in line with this growth.
2018 begins during a synchronized global economic boom
Given the economic data, I am starting 2018 in a surprisingly downbeat mood. Everything I see is pointing to continued expansion in the global economy.
Jobless claims data positive, no US slowdown evident
In the week ending December 23, initial jobless claims were just 245,000, keeping the average below 240,000 yet again. With claims still below year ago levels, there are no signs in the data that a US slowdown is coming. As a result, we may…
The Fed has been and probably will be more hawkish than you think
Markets seem to think the Federal Reserve’s recent policy statement and Chair Yellen’s subsequent press conference comments were dovish. This is a misread that I believe will have a meaningful impact on fixed income markets. The big…
Yellen: The relationship between the slope of the yield curve and the business cycle may have…
The biggest takeaway from Chair Yellen’s press conference was her belief that there is “reason to think the relationship between the slope of the yield curve and the business cycle may have changed.” To me, this suggests that some Fed…