Weak services ISM causes angst about trade wars
Here's the ISM's presser. Pay close attention to the bolded parts though. “The NMI® registered 55.7 percent, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than the June reading of 59.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the…
Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker at 5.0% for Q3
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tacker is already showing some pretty robust numbers for Q3 GDP growth.
More on GDP revisions, personal savings rates and how the sausage gets made
The magnitude of the revision is eye-catching. And my inner sceptic wonders how the initial data reads could have got it so wrong.
GDP revisions and the US personal savings rate
This report was the first under a major revision to reporting of US economic data. The personal savings rate stood out.
US GDP figures, more on the US and EU vs China, and social media’s comeuppance
Daily newsletter post with thughts on the latest GDP numbers, a US-EU trade deal and the earnings numbers coming from social media companies
Are the tales about a Goldilocks economy and the worries about recession conflicting narratives?
These are conflicting narratives, yes. But they don't have to be because, as Minsky quipped, stability breeds instability.
The latest GDPNow figure is up to 4.5%
There is no need for doom and gloom yet. Right now, it's about as good as it gets.
Trump, sky-high oil prices and US strategic petroleum reserves
Oil prices are at a point where Donald Trump may consider using the using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to provide modest price relief to consumers.
For the millionth time: investors exaggerate trade tensions at their own peril
Global equities have rallied. Of course, stock prices are not the end all and be all, but it stands in stark contrast to the cries that the sky is falling.
Monetary and fiscal space will be very limited in the next US downturn
Editor's note: This post was first published on Patreon on 27 June 2018. The United States governments spends money by keystroke. And though it is forced by law to sell bonds when its accounts at the Fed run low, this artificial…