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Will the Fed(s) stay the course?
This post on the bond vigilantes is inspired in part by my friend Kevin Muir and a post he just did over at The Macro Tourist. It's also inspired by the inflation numbers that came out of the US earlier today. The question to answer: how…
Americans paid not to work
In the wake of the last jobs report in the US, unemployment insurance has become a political football. The issue has some of the trappings of a labor vs capital tete a tete because of how the jobs report is being framed. Some thoughts below…
Ugly
Yesterday on the Real Vision Daily Briefing, my colleague Jack and I answered a question by viewer Dianna, "are there metrics you are watching closely now as compared to, say, a month ago?" My answer was US jobs numbers and initial…
The full-on pandemic, the full re-opening, and the Exponential Age
I am trying to figure out how to position this post for you because I have a few things on my mind. Let me start off with the most salient point: from a macroeconomic and market perspective, it's been quiet. There's almost no real news…
European vaccination, Manchin, and Republican infrastructure spell European outperformance
I am going to try and fit a few topics together into a cohesive narrative around a pivot to Europe amid an ongoing stimulus campaign on both sides of the Atlantic. The broad outline is one where both fiscal and monetary policy are…
Tax and spend, crony capitalism and the peasant revolt
Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US.
Yesterday, news came out that Biden is…
Winning the footrace against the variants and approaching the new normal
Winning the footrace
If you look at the SARS-CoV-2 case counts in the United States, they're flat to declining over the past two weeks. The fourth wave of the coronavirus in the US has been more muted than previous waves.
And while some…
The Crypto land grab concept and technological displacement
At RealVision, we have a whole group and a whole suite of video interviews dedicated to Crypto. But I am considered a macro guy at RV. And so, I try to stay out of the crypto side of things except to the degree it relates to traditional…
A quick word on bond vigilantism and market mania
I am sceptical of the long-term durability of this cycle. But, we have to remember that we had a record-long economic cycle after the Great Financial Crisis. And now, policymakers are not willing to accept impotence, either on the monetary…
Crypto: a sea change in how we gain trust
I have a conversation scheduled for 4PM today with Real Vision CEO and Co-Founder Raoul Pal. And I wanted to use today's newsletter as a 'prep' for that discussion. Raoul has become quite ensconced in the cryptocurrency world and sees that…