Jobs

The latest report on weekly claims for unemployment insurance was released today showing 221,000 new claims. That takes the 4-week average to 222,250, which compares favourably to the year ago figure of 241,250. Some comments below I…

Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 30 May 2018 After I wrote the last post, Kent Willard made a really good comment about service sector jobs versus goods-producing jobs that I want to expand upon. He said "there's a growing…

The lower the headline unemployment rate number goes, the more likely the Fed is to guide to two rate hikes in 2018.

Noah Smith notes that wages aren’t the only way Americans make money. Increasingly, income comes via nonwage compensation and government transfers.

As good as the headline unemployment rate appears to be, we should worry that wage growth for the majority of Americans remains weak. The Federal Reserve, acting on the headline rate, will likely make a significant policy error and raise…

Job growth has now begun a slight re-acceleration. If this trend holds, the unemployment rate will drop into the mid 3% range and the Fed will move to a fourth rate hike. The mix of continued job growth, tightening monetary policy, and late…

Lingering concerns about long-term unemployment notwithstanding, inflation has taken center stage. The most recent jobs report, while weak, does little to diminish the Fed's view that rates need to move higher.

The US Department of Labor released poor data for jobless claims this week. The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 242,000. This is the last piece of data to come out before the jobs report.

Links on Facebook, trade, wages and more.

The FOMC is scheduled to release a policy statement tomorrow, with a press conference to follow. A quarter percent increase in the Fed funds target is guaranteed. But future Fed policy will depend on three Fed projections: the dot plot,…