Since job gains peak mid-cycle, don’t expect the jobs report to throw the Fed off course

Quick message here prompted by the ADP payroll numbers

Now, the ADP numbers don't line up with the official payroll numbers released two days later but they are a good proxy for directionality if you look at the rolling 12-month change in payrolls.

Job growth in 2018 is slowing. And that's to be...

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