Jobs

The eye of this economic and healthcare storm has passed over us and we are just now getting hit with the backside of the storm. And so, as I await the initial jobless claims report at 8:30 Am EDT, the question is: how bad will it be? But…

As I await the US jobless claims numbers this morning, I am thinking about the international news broadcasts I listened to overnight. I think it's time to turn to a more global focus and get a sense of how countries around the world are…

Years ago, during the Great Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. I used to do a daily news round-up with links to some of the day's must-read articles. So I thought I would start up that practice again today. Let me say…

We saw a glimpse of it in the data last week for the first time, but the crushing impact of the coronavirus is now here. And the damage it is about to wreak on our economies is significant. This is likely to be a deep recession. Analysis…

When I was thinking about writing this post earlier in the weekend I was only going to stress the GDPNow number. And the point was to reiterate how well the US economy was doing pre-coronavirus. And then I was going to make the abrupt…

Setup We are set for yet another down day in equity markets, with S&P and Nasdaq futures showing 3% losses as I write this. The real moves are in the bond market though because we've seen 20 basis point moves at the long-end of the…

The latest jobs report confirms that, on the eve of the coronavirus outbreak, the US economy was healthy, and that there was little chance of a near-term recession. I would go so far as to say that, even with the coronavirus outbreak, the…

There are a lot of bearish views out there, suggesting recession is just around the corner. Frankly, I don’t see it.

I am looking at the US yield curve as I write this note and I see the 10-year yield is just one-tenth of a basis point above the 3-month yield. And the curve is completely inverted from 6 months to 3 years. Should we be worried? The short…

Despite my seemingly panglossian 'cautiously optimistic' post last week, I am still very much worried that we are hitting the end of this cycle. I'll tell you why below. But, let me add just a few notes on style first! In keeping with 'the…