Economic Data

In the US, we are officially in the longest expansion of all time. And, as yet, there are no definitive indicators I can see that it will end in short order. So I remain hopeful, if cautious about the potential for the US economy to avoid…

At the end of May, I started a post on very negative market signals saying "he economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we’re seeing in financial markets right now…

Everything I am reading this morning in the news flow points to increased geopolitical confrontation and the breakdown of the post-Cold War world order. We are quickly moving to a more hostile balkanized geopolitical environment. And I…

Today's jobs report in the US showed some fairly bullish headline numbers. Not only did the unemployment rate did to a 49-year low of 3.6%, but the monster 263,000 job addition was bolstered by net revisions of 16,000, bringing the total to…

This is going to be real quick. The Q1 GDP numbers came out. And they were a huge beat, showing 3.2% annualized growth versus an expected 2.0%. Even the bullish Atlanta Fed nowcast undershot this at 2.7%. If you look at how the quarter…

Real quick here today, since I'm supposed to be on Holiday. The data out this morning in the US were extremely bullish in my view. And, as I've been saying April data would make or break the economic re-acceleration thesis, I am finally…

I apologize for missing Monday and yesterday. I am actually on Holiday right now. And though it seems strange to work on Holiday, I have always written through my vacations. I reckon I will be off tomorrow. But, who knows. I have my laptop…

The overall macro message I have been making the past several months is that the global economy has cooled to perhaps its slowest growth since the financial crisis. Yet, when we look for signs of imminent recession in the US or for…

The jobs report released at 8:30 this morning was as a good a report as we could expect, more than ten years into the US economic expansion. The headline March numbers were an increase of 196,000 conform payrolls and an unemployment rate…

Sorry for the lack of posts. I haven't been feeling well. But let me make a short appearance with some brief thoughts on the global economy. 1 - Brexit I have been distracted a lot by the Brexit drama unfolding in the UK. In general, I…