Daily

Happy Friday! Let's use this time to run through the latest employment numbers and what they mean regarding the economic outlook. And so, I want to start from a self-quote I made yesterday from a January 8 post. The reverse radical…

Economically, I would say we're out of the woods for a recession now except to the degree mutant variants force new lockdowns. Four data points, real quick here. The 14-day change in hospitalization is -23%, with 91,440 hospitalizations…

You know this is going to be a redonkulous post by the name. So I am warning you ahead of time. It's going to be super macro - so half thought piece and half tactical. Let's see how many different interrelated topics I can manage to…

I am in an even more hopeful mood now than ever. But, at the same time, I still have my worries about downside risks given how euphoric asset markets have been and how mediocre economic data have been. I think that split between hope and…

As the new year has begun, I've been thinking a lot about the 'look through' narrative that sees the post-pandemic light at the end of a dark tunnel. While I have a lot of sympathy for the thought that pent-up demand for services will drive…

Jobless claims data around the holiday season is marred by lots of seasonality. And so, only in the coming weeks are we likely to get a 'clean' look at what's going on in real time. The latest report shows a step change that is worrying,…

While job losses may be the norm for the next few months, I have actually been somewhat encouraged by data out of the US. That was the macro takeaway from my last piece. The problem is and has always been the pandemic, particularly for the…

In mid-December, when I was pegging market and economic trends, I said "Don't be surprised if we see job losses in future US jobs reports in the new year." And with both the ADP Wednesday and the US Labor Department data today confirming…

I know you want me to talk about how angry Trump supporters stormed the Capitol yesterday just five miles from where I live. But actually, let's leave that as a tangential topic and use today to marry the first two posts of 2021 that I…

The numbers coming out of the US today from ADP show the negative impact that coronavirus-related economic rollbacks have had on employment. The data processing firm said the US lost 123,000 jobs in December, where expectations had been for…