Daily

Happy New Year, everyone. I am going to leg into this new year slowly with a thought piece - no charts, no quotes, no numbers. I had thought about updating you last week when the US claims numbers came in. But I think having a couple weeks'…

For the second week in a row the raw jobless claims data have fallen, as has the uptick in the rate of increase in Covid-19 infections and death. Meanwhile, some 2.4 million people have been vaccinated worldwide, a Brexit negotiation seems…

In today's piece, I want to focus only on what's been happening rather than making any conjectures about what's likely to happen. Sometimes, it pays just to take stock of where we are because that can help discern where we're headed. So,…

It may seem a bit odd for me to talk about why someone might buy shares on a day when retail sales in the US were down 1.1%. But that's what's been on my mind all morning. I think the genesis of it is a conversation I had with Jay Pelosky…

So it turns out the dip in initial jobless claims last week was just an artifact of the Thanksgiving holiday. This week we played catch up and then some. The question now is where we go from here. Some thoughts on that below Big Head Ed…

The report on the US Employment Situation for November 2020 was released today. And the headline job growth number was poor, a miss of over 200,000 jobs. But as I write this, markets are mostly of a bullish mindset, looking through this…

I want to take stock of the economic landscape in the US now that the Thanksgiving holiday is past. There are three decisive variables in my view. The first is the ability of the healthcare system to deal with the coronavirus and keep…

The US is moving quickly toward a double dip recession despite the prospect of vaccines being administered as soon as next month. The question is not whether growth forecasts ratchet down. It's about how much they come down and what the…

Lockdowns are very destructive for growth. We know that from the record-setting declines in GDP from the first global lockdowns back in the Spring. And we are getting a renewed sense of that fact now as Europe's economy has contracted under…

The incoming data in the US make clear that the US is now also in jeopardy of recording a double dip recession because of the latest Covid-19 wave, just as Europe before it. Moreover, the data also make clear that there is no healthcare -…