Dreams of a Second Half Recovery

As I write this, Washington is fixated on the congressional testimony of Robert Mueller. My attention is elsewhere though. For me, it's the economy that matters. Over the past two weeks, we have had a "recession watch" on Real Vision,…

The Fed’s Pickle

This is a follow-up to my subscriber post from earlier today on the US economy. For those of you who are not paying subscribers, let me summarize the post by saying I think the US economy is slowing but not in a recession. Nevertheless, I…

The Mid-2019 Macroeconomy

In the US, we are officially in the longest expansion of all time. And, as yet, there are no definitive indicators I can see that it will end in short order. So I remain hopeful, if cautious about the potential for the US economy to avoid…

The convergence to zero trade is back

Let me follow up this morning's general post with some longer term thoughts here via the Patreon platform. And while I want to make some geopolitical comments, let me look at this mostly from a markets perspective. I am once again thinking…

The problem with Europe

I have been troubled by the lack of policy space in Europe for some time now, particularly as it concerns Italy. But this is coming to a head for me this morning, with the German government auctioning 10-year paper at 24 basis points below…

The Fed basically has to cut now

The latest jobs report out of the US was relatively poor. While the comprehensive U-6 unemployment rate went down to the lowest since 2000, other data points suggested the labor market is topping. And with bond markets already predicting a…

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More