Political Economy

Very briefly here The jobs numbers coming out the US today are emblematic of the re-opening recovery that has fuelled the rally in US equity markets. Payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June, adding to the upwardly revised 2.7 million on May.…

Happy Wednesday. From what I can discern, the macro outlook is largely unchanged today. So, I thought I'd take a stab at presenting the news flow that most grabs my attention to put it in context for you. The framing here is that we…

As this is a finance site, I have tended to steer clear of writing about what's happening with the novel coronavirus. But, that's hard to do since it is the single most important factor in all of our lives. So, I'm going to give you an…

Falling apart I haven't posted in a week because I am trying to process what's happening in the United States right now. With the pandemic and 20-25% unemployment and cities torn by protest and violence, it really seems like the country is…

By Michael Pettis This post was originally published at China Financial Markets at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website According to a May 2020 CNN article, one consequence of the coronavirus pandemic is that “Americans…

The New Cold War I am going to have to get my hands on the new Pettis-Klein book that has come out recently. Here's how Yale University Press touts "Trade Wars are Class Wars": A provocative look at how today’s trade conflicts are caused by…

In yesterday's post, I was mostly upbeat about near-term economic outcomes. The overall gist was that we are going to see a snapback recovery soon that makes this the shortest recession on record. But, the snapback won't get us to anywhere…

I took a hiatus from writing for a few days to see if I could get a clearer perspective. But, the reality is that there is no visibility to anything going forward. Making longer-term predictions is probably a fool's errand then.…

I am waiting for the jobs numbers out of the US as I begin this post. On Wednesday, we got a preview via the private sector unemployment numbers released by ADP. They showed a loss of more than 20 million jobs, which was pretty much in line…

We are now entering the insolvency phase of this recession, where, despite government's best efforts, the weakest companies go under and unemployment rises. This shakeout will take months. But the economy will rebound out of recession well…