Political Economy

This weekend was a good one, with nothing too exciting roiling markets. So, rather than focussing on the near term, let me get out my crystal ball today and tell you what I see coming down the line. I'll break it up into discrete bits…

The tenor of my recent posts to subscribers has been mostly about the real world economic outcomes being worse than anticipated. Today's data flow is no different. Earlier today, I talked about the abysmal PMI numbers in Europe and the…

How many people will die because lockdowns are lifted prematurely? That's the first question going through my head as I think about the logic of yesterday's post on the coronavirus lockdown. No sooner had I written that post predicting that…

Years ago, during the Great Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. I used to do a daily news round-up with links to some of the day's must-read articles. So I thought I would start up that practice again today. Let me say…

We saw a glimpse of it in the data last week for the first time, but the crushing impact of the coronavirus is now here. And the damage it is about to wreak on our economies is significant. This is likely to be a deep recession. Analysis…

I have been looking back at my posts and re-reading my coverage of this global health crisis to get a sense of what I got wrong and why. I know this sounds perverse. But I think it's critical to actively seek non-confirming information and…

We are now to the point where it's clear the coronavirus situation will last for weeks and months to come as more and more countries are forced into the lockdown and quarantine approach to slow the virus down. This is a matter of life and…

Setup We are set for yet another down day in equity markets, with S&P and Nasdaq futures showing 3% losses as I write this. The real moves are in the bond market though because we've seen 20 basis point moves at the long-end of the…

I am growing a bit weary of all of the doom and gloom associated with the coronavirus outbreak. And I bet many of you are as well. Unfortunately, it is what is dominating both headlines and people's minds because it activates deep-seated…

I am doing a interview piece for Real Vision today, in which I will ask a number of veteran market players what they're seeing as the coronavirus scare takes full form. So, in preparation for that, I am writing this piece, because I think…