Markets

All eyes today are on the Federal Reserve because the Federal Open Market Committee is due to release its policy statement. There is an unusual amount of interest in what Fed Chairman Jay Powell says at the subsequent press conference…

I am in the middle of watching an entertaining interview of Mark Cuban by Larry McDonald on Real Vision right now. I haven't got to the part to which I assume the title refers:  "Mark Cuban — This Feels a Lot Like the Internet Bubble". But,…

At the end of April, I wrote a bullish piece centered on an economic snapback after the re-opening, in large part because of pervasive bearish sentiment. I called it "Negative sentiment, the oil price collapse and re-opening business".…

Shares are mixed in early trading today in the US after several days of positive performance. And while this might seem incongruous with the social unrest happening in the United States, there is no historical data supporting the notion…

Yesterday was a nice little rally in shares on the back of good news about a virus trial and stimulus support in the US and Europe. That saw us get well over the 61.8% retracement level for the S&P500, where there had been a lot of…

I woke up in the middle of last night. And I checked my phone really quickly. I know I shouldn't do it. Studies say it's bad sleep hygiene. But I couldn't help myself. I was on edge about all of the market volatility and I needed to know…

I'm a macro guy. So you're not coming to Credit Writedowns for trades. But this macro idea - that the US is not going to stay a net exporter of energy for long - came from a trade idea over a month ago. So, let me take you my thinking on…

We are now getting the first data points which will inform the increasing disconnect between a rebound in shares and the freefall in the real economy. And, after yesterday's rally in share prices, we are seeing a risk-off tone to the market…

The liquidity fiction When the Federal Reserve launched its bond buying programs during the Great Financial Crisis over a decade ago, it told the world that it was merely providing liquidity to markets that had needed it. It was acting as…

My British colleague Roger, now in lockdown in the UK, is the one who came up with the title phrase. He said, from an economic, policy and market standpoint, this is the key question to ask. In terms of the policy apparatus now in place, as…