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Markets
Thoughts on my September and October thesis playing out
Around the time that the re-opening rally began to consolidate, I developed a thesis that we would have to wait until September and October before we would know more clearly how the economy would perform over the medium-term. And my view…
Some thoughts on US jobs numbers and market volatility
I have three threads I want to say a few words on: jobless claims, the jobs report and recent market volatility. I think the macro theme that connects them is about a reversion to the mean' in real economy versus financial economy…
Two takeaways from today’s market meltdown
Markets were down today, sending the US market to its worst loss since June. Given that I have been writing about downside market risk, I thought I would make a few comments.
First, let me say that one bad day isn't a big deal. In fact,…
The convergence to zero trade end, volatility edition
This is an update to yesterday's post about the inability of safe asset holdings to mitigate downside risk during equity drawdowns. As you know, I believe we are about to enter a potentially volatile period in the markets in September and…
Portfolio implications as the convergence to zero trade ends
At the beginning of 2015, I began to push an investment thesis for fixed income that has had a lot of upside, but that I believe has finally played out. I want to discuss why that thesis mattered, why it's dead and what will replace it.…
Growth downshift, yes. But how much?
A lot of the data coming out of the US of late reinforces the concept that the V-shaped recovery is flattening out. Meanwhile, in Europe, which has outperformed the US on a currency-adjusted basis, the question now is whether that…
Momentum stocks as a long duration secular stagnation play
How do like that for a title!
Let me flesh this out relatively quickly here. It might end up spanning multiple posts as a result. But, yesterday I promised to follow up on thoughts about market volatility and market directional based on…
Bears forced to raise targets
I am back from the 4th of July weekend here in the US. I have a few new thoughts to share with you today. But, my overall macro view remains the same - namely that the US has recovered from recession but downside risks to the US economy and…
Some brief thoughts on the second coronavirus spike and financial markets
With financial markets seemingly untethered from the real economy, it's not clear what impact differential viral outcomes will have on risk assets. Because of central bank intervention and the potential of that intervention to put a floor…
Re-opening, the pandemic and a potential double dip
This is going to be a relatively short post (I hope). My aim is just to bring together all of the thinking from my recent posts into one shorter narrative. And I'm hoping I can do that successfully here. So, here goes
Pre-lockdown economy…