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Markets
Some thoughts on today’s market slump in hike probabilities, utilities, oil plus the rout in…
Asset market distress is mounting
My default position recently has been more about volatility than a directional call on any specific asset class. But, in a world in which asset prices have been rising, increased volatility is almost always…
The US treasury yield curve has inverted
While everyone was focussing on the relief rally in stocks yesterday, the US treasury yield curve inverted for the first time in over a decade. This is a negative signpost in a world in which the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise…
The credit cycle is now turning down. Here’s the evidence and the vulnerability
I started this post six days ago. But, I couldn't get it sorted because of the holiday and my need to start the blog site up again. That blog site thing and some maintenance issues at home were a real time suck. So let me give you an…
Countdown to inversion: US Treasury curve flattening has resumed
The bear steepening from late August was a head fake. We went from about 18 basis points between the 2- and the 10-year on August 27th to 34 on October 10th. That's when the equities market threw a tizzy as the ten-year reached the 3.25%…
More on the meltdown in oil (and a cut in oil capex)
We're getting to the point now where something very bad is going to happen. Someone is losing his shirt in the oil markets right now. And the question is whether that somebody impacts the US oil sector and oil capital expenditures.
As I…
The bear market in crude
Really quickly here: WTI has traded down into bear market territory today. I see it quoted at $61.38. The high was $76.90. Brent is also down to $71.81 from a high of $86.74. That's not official bear market territory yet. But it's coming…
A quick note about the bond market
I don't have a daily post for you today. So, in lieu of a daily, I wanted to make some more general comments about interest rates that I have been making in my market commentary pieces.
The accelerated hike timetable
In February, I wrote a…
Forget about $100 oil and disregard the non-farm number too. Watch housing
No more oil black swan
Remember Al Arabiya channel’s General Manager Turki Aldakhil warning that imposing sanctions on, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter could spark global economic disaster? I wrote about it when the Jamal…
Hanging on Apple’s earnings as the stock market ticks up
In contrast to the last month, it was a good day for the markets today. So I want to do a mini-recap.
All eyes on Apple
First up: Apple is slated to report tomorrow afternoon after the closing bell. Expectations for their earnings report…
The flight to safety even includes Italian sovereign debt now, as US housing market feels Fed…
Flight to liquidity reminiscent of January and February
As the equities market sells off, it's worth noting how much the sovereign bond market is rallying at the same time. I am seeing the 10-year US Treasury bond quoted at 3.079%, well…