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The bear market in crude
Really quickly here: WTI has traded down into bear market territory today. I see it quoted at $61.38. The high was $76.90. Brent is also down to $71.81 from a high of $86.74. That's not official bear market territory yet. But it's coming…
A quick note about the bond market
I don't have a daily post for you today. So, in lieu of a daily, I wanted to make some more general comments about interest rates that I have been making in my market commentary pieces.
The accelerated hike timetable
In February, I wrote a…
Forget about $100 oil and disregard the non-farm number too. Watch housing
No more oil black swan
Remember Al Arabiya channel’s General Manager Turki Aldakhil warning that imposing sanctions on, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter could spark global economic disaster? I wrote about it when the Jamal…
Hanging on Apple’s earnings as the stock market ticks up
In contrast to the last month, it was a good day for the markets today. So I want to do a mini-recap.
All eyes on Apple
First up: Apple is slated to report tomorrow afternoon after the closing bell. Expectations for their earnings report…
The flight to safety even includes Italian sovereign debt now, as US housing market feels Fed…
Flight to liquidity reminiscent of January and February
As the equities market sells off, it's worth noting how much the sovereign bond market is rallying at the same time. I am seeing the 10-year US Treasury bond quoted at 3.079%, well…
Global bond markets are pointing to risk-off, particularly regarding Italy
As the Dow Jones Industrial Average flirts with a 500 point decline, it's worth mentioning the flight to safety going on in the global bond markets. We are seeing major moves into sovereign bonds across currency areas. That has the US…
A quick note on the Sears bankruptcy
The iconic department store, Sears, has filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the US bankruptcy code. Retail has changed a lot in recent years. And for Sears specifically, this bankruptcy has been coming for a long time. It was signalled…
Why the ten-year’s hitting 3.25% has spooked asset markets
This is how Fed tightening regimes work
We're bracing for another big sell off in equities today. I don't know if you saw my piece yesterday on market groups breaking below 50- and 200-day daily moving averages. I said "I don’t have a view…
Some thoughts on the impact of $100 oil on the US, Europe, Japan and EM
Last week, WTI for November delivery passed the $76 a barrel mark. And since September, speculation has been rife that oil could top $100 a barrel in due course. If oil prices do continue to rise, that's going to have very different effects…
An Italian banking crisis and mark-to-market rules
Italy's 10-year sovereign bond yield has risen from 1.78% at end of April and prior to the general election to 3.66%. That's the highest since the beginning of 2014 and the yield is still rising. Domestic banks and Italian life insurers are…