Markets

I'm a macro guy. So you're not coming to Credit Writedowns for trades. But this macro idea - that the US is not going to stay a net exporter of energy for long - came from a trade idea over a month ago. So, let me take you my thinking on…

We are now getting the first data points which will inform the increasing disconnect between a rebound in shares and the freefall in the real economy. And, after yesterday's rally in share prices, we are seeing a risk-off tone to the market…

The liquidity fiction When the Federal Reserve launched its bond buying programs during the Great Financial Crisis over a decade ago, it told the world that it was merely providing liquidity to markets that had needed it. It was acting as…

My British colleague Roger, now in lockdown in the UK, is the one who came up with the title phrase. He said, from an economic, policy and market standpoint, this is the key question to ask. In terms of the policy apparatus now in place, as…

I want to present two sides of the argument that equities are putting in a bottom. I think there's no doubt that equities are trying to put in a bottom, simply because equity markets are deeply oversold after the massive downdraft in…

The awesome scale and scope of the coronavirus pandemic is now becoming clear as countries around the world enter lockdown and quarantine. And financial markets are in turmoil as a result. I am writing this before the open in NY. But…

The S&P500 futures index are limit up as I write this. What a turnaround this is from yesterday. It shows you that volatility will rule the day until we get certainty on the economic and market issues behind the coronavirus epidemic.…

We are now facing the potential for a severe financial crisis, with all asset markets showing major moves toward safe haven assets. What has precipitated panic is the Saudi oil price cut at the weekend because it has caused oil prices to…

When I was thinking about writing this post earlier in the weekend I was only going to stress the GDPNow number. And the point was to reiterate how well the US economy was doing pre-coronavirus. And then I was going to make the abrupt…

*I started this post about 8:30 EST. So, hindsight tells me the part on market tone is on the money, as the market is selling off a bit. Market tone So, I was right yesterday morning about the potential for a relief rally. It was a pretty…