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Markets
The yield curve is now super-inverted
I am doing my 2019 outlook pieces now. And I plan on making some market outlook comments in the coming days. But, what's going on in the market right now is equally important.
As the stock market takes a battering due to concerns about…
More on the steepening yield curve and deteriorating credit conditions
I want to talk a little about price action in asset markets this week. But, since I am on holiday, I am going to keep this short. Most of the focus has been on equities, where volatility has increased. But I am looking at this as more of a…
The yield curve is steepening again. Here’s what it means.
Bullish Treasury curve action
Lost in the relief over the rally in US equities today was the price action in US government bonds. And it was good. Even before today, as the middle of the curve inverted, the Treasury curve had been…
What to make of the best one-day percentage gain for US stocks in over nine years
I want to go back to my theme of just over a week ago about the resiliency of the US economy. That's because, regardless of one-day -- or even multi-day -- stock market gyrations, the real economy is the defining issue for markets.…
Why this could have been the Fed’s last rate increase
If you look at markets today, they are on full strike. The Fed may have reduced guidance. But that was clearly not enough to assuage market sentiment. Across a wide cross-section of markets, conditions have continued to tighten this morning…
Will the Fed throw the market a bone tomorrow?
The daily yesterday was on the resiliency of the US economy. My overarching message was that the angst we are seeing in the market is not reflective of near-term economic strength. Instead, it's a combination of worries about a slowing…
Some thoughts on today’s market slump in hike probabilities, utilities, oil plus the rout in…
Asset market distress is mounting
My default position recently has been more about volatility than a directional call on any specific asset class. But, in a world in which asset prices have been rising, increased volatility is almost always…
The US treasury yield curve has inverted
While everyone was focussing on the relief rally in stocks yesterday, the US treasury yield curve inverted for the first time in over a decade. This is a negative signpost in a world in which the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise…
The credit cycle is now turning down. Here’s the evidence and the vulnerability
I started this post six days ago. But, I couldn't get it sorted because of the holiday and my need to start the blog site up again. That blog site thing and some maintenance issues at home were a real time suck. So let me give you an…
Countdown to inversion: US Treasury curve flattening has resumed
The bear steepening from late August was a head fake. We went from about 18 basis points between the 2- and the 10-year on August 27th to 34 on October 10th. That's when the equities market threw a tizzy as the ten-year reached the 3.25%…