Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Browsing Category
Markets
A relief rally is not out of the question
A relief rally is probably the best we can hope for at this juncture. Bond yields are still plummeting, showing both risk-off sentiment and an expectation that monetary easing is coming For example, the market is now pricing in with near…
The convergence to zero trade is back
Let me follow up this morning's general post with some longer term thoughts here via the Patreon platform. And while I want to make some geopolitical comments, let me look at this mostly from a markets perspective.
I am once again thinking…
China Cannot Weaponize Its U.S. Treasury Bonds
A number of recent articles suggest that Chinese officials may reduce their purchases of U.S. government bonds. It is very unlikely that China can do so in any meaningful way because doing so would almost certainly be costly for Beijing.…
Risk-off selling continues as Uber slides
I have some thoughts on economic headlines below. This one is outside the paywall. If you like what you read, please subscribe.
Uber as a signpost
I am just catching up to where I left off at the end of last week regarding the risk-off…
Surging markets, low volatility, and fake liquidity
As I note today how the upcoming Uber IPO tells us that equity investors are still quite bullish, I also realize that this particular bull market is unique in its absence of volatility. There have been a few hiccups a long the way,…
On global bond markets predicting recession, collapsing net interest margins and Sweden as the model
This post is going to be relatively long because I am going to try to combine a number of threads together. I thought about putting this post in the investor newsletter pool. But I am going to give it a wider distribution because of the…
The coming earnings recession
Earnings were boosted by corporate tax cuts in the past year. And earnings growth has been buoyed by significant corporate releveraging. But 2019 is looking challenging for companies now and the chart below shows you why.
While earnings…
How markets will behave given central banks are still too tight
The last update I gave you on the market in the aftermath of the ECB's policy statement was about central banks being too tight. The gist of my remarks was that CBs are all poised to tighten, if and when the data allow them to do so. This…
How to think about deficit spending by a sovereign government
I was reading about the potential candidacy of former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz for US President in the 2020 election just now. He plans to run as an independent, potentially dividing the anti-Trump vote, should Trump survive until then.…
Market recovery but expect volatility to remain
The trading day is over in the US and the numbers look good. Equity markets have recovered smartly from last weeks nosedive, with all major US indices up about 1%. Notable for me is the fact that WTI is trading close to $50 a barrel and the…