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No stimulus, no problem?
The calls for fiscal relief by the Federal Reserve have apparently fallen on deaf ears, as US President Trump pulled out of negotiations for a stimulus package last night. Asset markets were all over the place as investors digested the…
David Rosenberg and the corona crisis as a depression
I know everyone is still talking about President Trump's contracting coronavirus. But I want to talk about the virus from a different, more economic lens. That's because I was talking to the excellent David Rosenberg last week about the…
Economic downshift sinking in?
I want to run something by you here. It's entirely speculative but there are multiple threads hanging off of it that give me reason to speculate. It's about the trajectory of the US (and global economy) and signs that growth is slowing.…
An update on momentum stocks as a secular stagnation play
Back in August I told you I had a thesis I was working on fleshing out about why growth stocks are so loved and why growth has trumped value for years and continues to do. The first post on this is here. But let me provide an update today.…
Jobless claims remain dangerously elevated
The US Department of Labor released the latest jobless claims report this morning and the numbers were poor. From their email, announcing the figures:
In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial…
Get while the getting is good (and more on jobless claims)
Quick post here on jobless claims
Data collection difficulties
Data collection is a real challenge during this pandemic. And the US jobless claims data set is telling on that score. For one, the US Labor Department was forced a few weeks…
Search and Simplicity: The Silver Bullets of the Internet
I want to try something slightly different today, and go 'off-topic' with some content that more fits the Credit Writedowns blog of yore, when I covered a much wider range of topics. And so, this post is going to be about technology,…
Worries about a retail investor-led speculative mania, part 2
Back in June, I wrote a post about worries that were beginning to surface regarding a speculative mania taking form in the equity markets. I want to update the thinking from that post now that we have had three months' additional data. And…
The US labor market is deteriorating
Today's US jobless claims report makes clear that the boost from re-opening is now fading. And a second wave of job loss is upon us. As a result, while the US unemployment rate declined more than expected in the last jobs report, I expect…
The Fed, endogenous money and balance sheet constraints
I haven't been teeing up thought pieces on the financial system on Credit Writedowns for a while now. And that's a shame since this site's name owes to the role I believe balance sheets in the financial system play in business cycles.
So,…