Credit Writedowns

Before I get into the markets, let me point out two nice data points released this morning. The data The first is Q3 GDP for the US, which came in at 33.1% on an annualized basis and ahead of expectations for 31.0%. That's 7.4% growth in…

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. That's what they say, isn't it? Well, apparently this is also true about my September/October economic pivot call too. If you recall, I'd been saying that September and October would be a tricky…

I want to take the most macro view possible today. We have a major US election upon us. And we are also experiencing significant increases in Covid-19 infections in Europe and North America. These are events with a wide dispersion of…

I was reading something this morning about Fed Governor Lael Brainard recommending monetary and fiscal support to stop a K-shaped outcome where the less well-off lose and the most well-off win. “This strong support from monetary policy - if…

The thread that ties today's topics at Credit Writedowns together is the novel coronavirus pandemic. That's because how various countries have fared economically is very much dependent on what they are doing to control the virus. Let me…

Real quick here as I want to highlight two other analysts' thinking. This morning, I saw two novel ways of conceptualizing what's happening during this pandemic that I wanted to run by you because I think they add value. It's not…

In the US, after the initial V-shaped basing effect of the re-opening, we have moved into a more steady state uptick in output and growth. Having seen the data since June, I believe we exited recession with the re-opening and are now far…

I want to put a little more meat on the bones regarding the section of yesterday's post on credit, defaults and bankruptcies with some numbers. I would contend that credit cycles lead garden-variety business cycle turns. So, absent a Black…

The line that sticks out for me from my last post in re-reading it went something like this: "So, now I am in the uncomfortable position of being relatively sanguine about the near term but concerned about future trends." I want to expand…

The jobless claims series came out again this morning showing 840,000 initial claims plus a modest revision upward of last week's number to 849,000. These numbers just aren't coming down fast enough. And we know from the last recovery that…