Daily

ECB stimulus The biggest development today was the ECB's announcement that it is reversing its stance on stimulus and offering new bank loans: The European Central Bank signaled a major policy reversal Thursday, flagging plans for fresh…

The February 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM data were very bullish. Both the headline and the major subindices showed a lot of strength. And for me that indicates the 0.3% number on the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker will move up markedly as more…

Stalled outYou probably saw this but the Atlanta Fed came out with its first Q1 GDPNow estimate. And it's starting at a 0.3% level. Here's the chart. GDPNow is a nowcast. So it can change dramatically. And it isn't always very close to…

I have a number of threads to address here. The first is that we got two big pieces of economic data out of the US this morning, one backward looking and the other coincident or forward looking. And I want to break down. My overall take is…

May's stalling tactic hasn't worked In the two months since British Prime Minister Theresa May decided to postpone a Parliamentary vote on her deal with the EU, I have been predicting she would be forced to delay implementation of Article…

For the past several years, I have been trying to write more about outcomes and less about theories and policy prescriptions. But, like anyone, I have a core set of beliefs on economics and a lot more. Economics is not a science; it is a…

A detour to the other side of the pond I have two big picture issues on my mind this morning. The first is the US economy and the US policy response. I think the Neil Irwin piece in the New York Times encapsulates a lot of the thinking on…

My recent experience with taxis On my way into Manhattan from LaGuardia Airport on Monday night, I noticed an app symbol for Curb on the payment box in my taxi. The box said I could pay for the ride with this app. So while I was in transit,…

Recalling "Trump Unchained" It started with the sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in March 2018, almost a year ago. US President Donald Trump has gradually but forcefully unchained himself from moderating influences in his…

The Federal Reserve's about-face on rates between December and January looks a lot more rational in the context of the US economic data released today. We saw US retail sales unexpectedly fall in December, posting the worst drop in nine…