Daily

It's coming down to the wire for British Prime Minister Theresa May now. Starting at about 1900 GMT, parliament is to vote on the Leave Agreement she secured from Brussels. Theresa May has been making last ditch attempts to win over MPs in…

Happy Monday! Let's take a break from all of the angst about Brexit, about the US shutdown, and slowing global growth and look at some overarching macro policy debates that are relevant to this economic cycle. I've put forward my own views…

Two issues I mentioned yesterday need some clarification. Trump will declare a state of emergency for the Wall The first is the shutdown. It's this quote that needs clarification: The longer the shutdown goes on, the more damage it will do.…

Today's daily post is going to a true daily, covering a wide range of market and political economy news. Forcing government to rule out no deal And I want to start with Brexit because I think this is one of the most pressing issues in the…

On today's market action Today saw the S&P 500 rise for the fourth straight day, the longest up-streak since September. And that puts us up 10% since Christmas Eve. Crude is rallying too , with WTI gaining almost 5% on the day to…

I've been thinking about how to write this piece on the outlook for the political economy in the UK for a number of days. I had it teed up to finish yesterday. But I have left it until today. Apologies I still have the bias that economics…

The numbers Now, about the jobs numbers, here are the headline numbers: An increase of 312,000 in December in non-farm payrolls based on the business survey. That is well in excess of the consensus estimate for 178,000. Revisions of…

I will continue my 2019 outlook pieces in the coming days. But we've seen a lot of data out today. I think what we're seeing will have a bearing on rate policy, especially given what's happening in the bond market, something I discussed…

Happy New Year! I've been thinking about what will be different in 2019 than 2018 and I wanted to run my thoughts by you on a number of different topics. And because I've discussed some of my thinking about the outlook for the markets and…

I want to talk a little about price action in asset markets this week. But, since I am on holiday, I am going to keep this short. Most of the focus has been on equities, where volatility has increased. But I am looking at this as more of a…