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Daily
The Trump Presidency is collapsing
Markets are imploding, every organization that US President Donald Trump has led is under investigation, his poll ratings are sagging, and Trump's legislative agenda is set to go nowhere under a divided Congress. Frankly, it looks very…
Fight the Fed
Stocks sold off big again today. Slowly, we are inching ourselves toward a bear market here. And I think the mantra has to be 'Fight the Fed'.
In this morning's market piece, I explained why this could be the Fed's last rate increase. And…
The Fed acts as Credit Writedowns predicted. Here’s why and what to expect
As I wrote yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point but changed guidance in the face of tightening financial conditions. In his press conference afterwards, the Fed Chairman - also as predicted - talked bullishly…
Will the Fed throw the market a bone tomorrow?
The daily yesterday was on the resiliency of the US economy. My overarching message was that the angst we are seeing in the market is not reflective of near-term economic strength. Instead, it's a combination of worries about a slowing…
Wait until crisis for the dollar, expect 2019 curve inversion, plus other predictions
There are a number of market, economic and political threads I want to comment on as we end the week. In terms of my mood, having digested the recent economic and political news, I am actually hopeful. I think the prospect of recession and…
Theresa May’s saving grace is the ticking clock on Brexit
We now have a Conservative Party vote of confidence by secret ballot scheduled for tonight in the UK. Enough Tory MPs sent letters to the 1922 Committee chair to trigger the vote, throwing the Brexit outcome into further turmoil. But there…
Cold War 2.0, a broken Germany and a US Federal Reserve at the crossroads
Recent news shows decision -making crossroads in the China-US trade dispute, in German politics and in Fed policy.
Six topics I am following which will impact economy and markets (part two)
There are a lot of things going on right now. And uncertainty surrounds all of it, from China-US trade and NAFTA to the economy and monetary policy to regulation and Brexit. I think there is more uncertainty surrounding these issues than is…
Six topics I am following which will impact economy and markets (part one)
I want to use the news flow to highlight several issues that I am following that should have a major impact on the economy and financial markets in the next year. All of these topics are laden with risks that skew to the downside. And that…
The global growth slowdown is accelerating
The US is not going to be the engine of global growth here. With Europe, focused on exporting its way to growth and China both slowing and in jeopardy of tariffs, we have the makings of difficult times in 2019.