Theresa May’s saving grace is the ticking clock on Brexit

By Edward Harrison On Dec 12, 2018

We now have a Conservative Party vote of confidence by secret ballot scheduled for tonight in the UK. Enough Tory MPs sent letters to the 1922 Committee chair to trigger the vote, throwing the Brexit outcome into further turmoil. But there are a number of clarifying points. So let me use this as an opportunity to follow on my Monday post, with an update now that we have a confidence vote.

The Brexit variables

I gave you ten important variables in this equation last time. Since at least one of them is no longer a variable, let’s repeat that list below and see what’s changed. I will highlight the items I think are no longer variables but now definite:

The deadlines of 21 Jan 2019 for the UK Parliament to have a say on the Brexit deal and 29 Mar 2019 when Brexit will occur
The widespread fear of crashing out of the EU on 29 Mar 2019 without a deal
The lack of obvious ways to deal with the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in a world in which Northern Ireland is not inside the EU
Theresa May’s dependence on the DUP of Northern Ireland to achieve an absolute majority in the UK Parliament
The uncertainty on whether 48 Conservative Party MPs would be willing to submit letters to Altrincham and Sale West MP Graham Brady, the 1922 Committee Chair, to start a Tory Party leadership contest
The lack of obvious alternatives to Theresa May as Conservative Party leader
Conservative Party fear of a general election which would allow Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn to become Prime Minister
The widespread desire to avoid any kind of second referendum around the Brexit question, no matter which questions are asked, due to the perceived anti-democratic nature of such a vote
Conservative Party division on whether a no-deal Brexit is a viable, non-catastrophic alternative to a deal
The lack of a clear majority in UK opinion polling concerning most of the major issues surrounding Brexit

Looking at the list, really, we only have one variable removed from the list. And that tells you the situation is still very fluid.

The Vote

What happens next depends on whether Theresa May survives the confidence vote in her party. Notice that this is not a full vote in the House of Commons on confidence in May’s government. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said he is primed and waiting for the right time to make such a move. Instead, this is an intra-party contest for the Conservatives. And while the Prime Minister is getting a lot of public support from her Cabinet, we can’t read into any of this, because the ballot is secret. What MPs say publicly may not line up with how they vote tonight.

As I tweeted yesterday, the last Conservative Party leader to lose a confidence vote was Iain Duncan Smith in 2003. He lost 75 to 90. And that was during the Conservative Party’s long period in the wilderness. So that vote is not necessarily a guide. But it tells us about process.

If Theresa May loses the confidence vote tonight and only one candidate comes forward, as in 2003 when Michael Howard was the only one to come forward, then that candidate becomes Conservative party leader without the need for a vote. In the 2003 case, Howard, who was then the shadow chancellor, announced that he would stand. And immediately, David Davis, then considered the chief rival, threw his lot in with Howard. You have to think Howard and Davis agreed on this ahead of time.

So, this go round, many Conservative Party MPs sent 1922 letters months ago. They will have been coordinating plans in secret. Perhaps, there is a deal that’s already been coordinated behind the scenes for a ‘caretaker’ PM to emerge who will not face a leadership contest. We will find out tonight.

The ticking clock

However, you look at it though, the problem is the ticking clock. That’s why I have it as the first variable in the list above. So calling a leadership contest at this time works in Theresa May’s favor. Unless the ‘caretaker’ PM and her allies can convince other MPs that only one person will stand for Prime Minister, you risk a leadership contest eating into valuable time as a no-deal Brexit looms in the background. And this is what many want to avoid. If May beats this back, she is safe (within her party) for another 12 months. Corbyn, of course, could trigger a confidence vote in the commons, which I reckon he will once the Brexit deadline is over.

The reason I call the next Tory Prime Minister a caretaker is because this is a poisoned chalice, a thankless job no one really wants. Theresa May has done the dirty work. And regardless of what you think of her skills as a PM, we have a deal. But, it’s a deal no one wants. And to be the Prime Minister that decides whether to bring this deal across the line, risk crashing out of the EU without a deal or revoking Article 50, is to be a Prime Minister with an unknowable legacy. There is a lot of risk attached to this. And the government could collapse in short order.

If May wins, she will try and negotiate a better deal. I don’t think she will get one, because, to a person, the EU leaders are saying there is no new deal to be had. And the word on the street is that they have tired of her coming round looking over and over again. They want this process to end as much as anyone else. So, May is likely to come back empty-handed if she stays on as PM. And then the choice is no deal or Article 50 revocation.

If May loses, the caretaker Prime Minister will face exactly the same scenario. But, she could request an extension to the timetable under the premise that she is a new Prime Minister and needs more time to sort things out. I am sceptical a new PM could win 27 votes to delay Brexit. But, it is possible. If that doesn’t work, Britain either revokes the Article 50 declaration or crashes out of the EU without a deal.

The Irish backstop

In all of this, the problem with the Irish border looms large. The Good Friday agreement signed twenty years ago would be in jeopardy if the UK leaves the EU without a negotiated deal. This is why there is a side deal to ensure that there is no hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, as there was for a long while until the last two decades.

But this ‘Irish backstop” either puts the UK in a perpetual customs union with the EU without a say in EU decision-making or moves the customs border to the Irish Sea, basically making Northern Ireland different than the rest of the UK. And, at that point, the idea of a united Ireland becomes real.

This is a big sticking point. Northern Ireland voted against Brexit. And the UK government is a coalition that depends on the Democratic Unionist Party, the only major party in Northern Ireland to back Brexit, to achieve an absolute majority in Parliament. But DUP leaders have been very critical of Theresa May’s deal. They will not vote for it, one reason it will fail.

So May has been basically forced to try and re-negotiate. The reason she is being subjected to the vote of confidence is because this was clear weeks ago. And she delayed the vote on her deal only at the last minute. That has sapped her of support as some Conservative MPs no longer see her as a viable leader for their party and government.

The DUP will not vote against May in a confidence vote in the House of Commons. But they will also not vote for her Irish Backstop.

What happens next?

We’ve only had one variable removed here. So, there are too many moving parts to say anything with confidence. The whole situation is chaotic. But I continue to believe that, given the lack of commitment to May’s Brexit deal and the fear of a no-deal Brexit, we will eventually see the Article 50 process revoked.

Former Conservative Prime Minister John Major has argued for this outcome already. He sees the Irish border issue as intractable. Read his view here.

Once the Article 50 process is stopped, Corbyn will have to decide when he wants to subject the government to a vote of confidence. Only after new elections would we find out if there will be a second Brexit referendum. And that vote, if it happened, might not be until 2020, almost four years after the first.

This Brexit process remains ridiculously complex. But at least one variable has been removed.