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Daily
More on the US Treasury yield curve inversion and widening bond spreads
Yesterday, the US Treasury yield curve inverted between 2- and 5-year rates. Right now, the 2-year is trading at 2.82%. While the 5-year is trading at 2.81%. So, the curve remains inverted.
Updating the global economic outlook for the China-US trade war pause
Here is what the freeze in the US-China trade war will mean for the global economic outlook.
The Fed minutes and concerns about the pace of rate hikes
This is my inaugural post on the new platform after I wrote you about changes I wanted to make. So, I hope this new platform is better than the old because it's being hosted at my old blog url www.creditwritedowns.com. Let me know your…
Let’s unpack Clarida’s comments while we wait for Powell
Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida gave a speech just yesterday on future monetary policy called "Data Dependence and U.S. Monetary Policy". Let's look at what he had to say as we await Chairman Powell's own speech today.
The credit cycle is now turning down
I am now stuffed with Turkey after days sitting around eating for the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US. Today is Black Friday, the biggest day of the year for retail sales. And so it makes sense to write this newsletter post today. I…
Expect political trench warfare as the economy slows
This was me in October:
The right narrative here is that the Republicans will lose very badly. And so, expect gridlock, political trench warfare, in the US starting in 2019. That’s going to be a significant factor controlling how well the…
Confirming a second global growth slowdown as Trump tries to consolidate power
The big picture: deflation is back
There was a global growth slowdown that I flagged late in 2014. And it came to the fore in 2015, derailing the US economy and pushing the Fed's rate hike timetable back. Here we are with another one. I…
Back to the Fed
The midterm election is over. So we can go back to worrying about the Fed!
I ended yesterday's political economy piece saying:
My sense, here, is that a divided Congress means we are in a ride it out period economically. There are no more…
As we head to the mid-terms, what about the economy?
There isn't a lot of economic news out today, so let me focus today's piece a bit on the economic and social messaging ahead of the US midterm elections.
What about the economy?
I was in the car just now, listening to the radio, when a…
On stagnation in Italy, GE’s dividend, the weak yuan, and a rudderless Germany
I want to start today's daily with the markets and the real economy before I branch out into more political economy including Germany.
European economic numbers
And since I mentioned Germany, let me start there. A slew of economic data came…