Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Browsing Category
Daily
A few thoughts on the populist political environment in the US
Obama's missed opportunity
In 2009 and beyond, the Obama Administration had a unique opportunity to not just recalibrate, but to replace the existing economic paradigm. They didn't do that, largely because Obama and his closest policy…
IMF backs Fed rate pause citing rising global risks, Japan decelerates
The post this morning on the evolving strategy of Germany's SPD was actually yesterday's post. I didn't get a chance to write it because I went to bed super early. So I am going to write a short piece for today's post focussing on Japan,…
German Social Democrats abandoning third way rhetoric
There is a shift going on in Germany which has the center-left party moving away from the center after disastrous election results. And I think this is a significant signpost of the center-left's abandonment of the policies championed by…
Jobless claims are now flashing red too
I just got this via email from the US Labor Department:
In the week ending February 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 253,000. The…
Some insights into (declining) US economic health
In the US stock market, technology stocks are leading the rally from the deeply oversold levels in December. And that has a lot of people thinking the worst is over. But this is just a relief rally. The real economy is actually…
The Fed is reacting to slowing global growth, not asset markets
Note: this post is going out via Patreon and Credit Writedowns. So, you may get duplicate emails. I am just doing this to alert anyone that is only getting emails on one platform to ping me at [email protected], so I can fix that.…
How to think about deficit spending by a sovereign government
I was reading about the potential candidacy of former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz for US President in the 2020 election just now. He plans to run as an independent, potentially dividing the anti-Trump vote, should Trump survive until then.…
China’s slowdown and emerging consensus for global recession
What are markets saying?
The good times are over! The days of extremely low volatility, with the VIX trading at 12 or 13 are now over. We may see an up day or a down day, but the volatility is now higher than it was before - perhaps…
China’s ‘Minsky Moment’ and an inevitable second referendum
China's slowdown
Let's start with China today because yesterday the Chinese released their worst growth figures in 28 years. The 6.4% growth number was expected. Even so, the problems are large. Here's how Reuters described it yesterday:…
Sliding toward a no-deal Brexit and a US recession?
A couple of things today.
The default is no-deal, the base case is extension of article 50
I waited until the bust settled on the no-confidence vote before I decided to write again about Brexit. It was clear that the fear of Corbyn as PM…