Daily

Sorry for the lack of posts. I haven't been feeling well. But let me make a short appearance with some brief thoughts on the global economy. 1 - Brexit I have been distracted a lot by the Brexit drama unfolding in the UK. In general, I…

This post is going to be relatively long because I am going to try to combine a number of threads together. I thought about putting this post in the investor newsletter pool. But I am going to give it a wider distribution because of the…

Hearing what Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren makes of the US economy, you get the feeling that the Fed may not be ready to roll over completely. And with the yield curve inverted between the 3-month and 10-year yields, we are at a…

Back in September 2018, Fed Governor Lael Brainard dismissed yield curve inversion as a signal of recession, something I saw then - and still see now - as a mistake. And what I said then is that this mistake would lead to the Fed's…

I want to get to the Fed decision later today. But, before that, let me update you on Brexit under the rubric "Brexit as Europe's Lehman moment". I am thinking of it this way because many policy makers want to avoid the political and…

Very quick here on Brexit. British Prime Minister Theresa May has now submitted a formal request to the EU to extend the Article 50 time period to June 30th. The reason for the extension is that Britain has nearly run out of time, and it…

No major catalysts in either direction Right now, there are no major stories that I think will have any meaningful near-term impact on asset markets. We're definitely still in  a risk-on market phase. And ostensibly, this is largely because…

Real quick here. I saw the jobless claims data today and thought they looked pretty good. But, I decided to go back to my 2008-2009 practice of sifting through the raw data for both initial claims and continuing claims. The numbers weren't…

Thinking about Japanification Two FT articles and a discussion at Real Vision precipitated this post. On Monday, I had a conference call with a few markets-oriented colleagues at Real Vision, where I am an editor and program presenter. And…

Equities continued their rally today, both in the US and globally. While the US rally was impeded by bad news for Boeing, the S&P 500 did eke out a gain on the back of a rally in tech. Cisco, for example, is up 29% since it bottomed on…